The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US Plunged in April

NEW YORK, May 19, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US fell sharply by 1.0% in April 2025 to 99.4 (2016=100), after declining by 0.8% in March (revised downward from the –0.7% originally reported). The LEI declined by 2.0% in the six-month period ending April 2025, the same rate of decline as over the previous six months (April–October 2024).

"The U.S. LEI registered its largest monthly decline since March 2023, when many feared the US was headed into recession, which did not ultimately materialize," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. "Most components of the index deteriorated. Notably, consumers' expectations have become continuously more pessimistic each month since January 2025, while the contribution of building permits and average working hours in manufacturing turned negative in April. Widespread weaknesses were also present when looking at six-month trends among the LEI's components, resulting in a warning signal for growth. However, while the six-month growth rate of the LEI went deeper into negative territory, it did not fall enough to trigger the recession signal. The Conference Board currently forecasts US real GDP to grow by 1.6% in 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024, with the bulk of the impact of tariffs likely to hit the economy in Q3."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the US inched up by 0.1% in April 2025 to 114.8 (2016=100), after a 0.3% increase in March. The CEI rose by 1.1% over the six-month period between October 2024 and April 2025, slightly up from its 0.9% growth over the previous six months. The CEI's four component indicators—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. Industrial production, while little changed compared to the previous month, was the weakest contributor to the index in April.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the US increased by 0.3% to 119.3 (2016=100) in April 2025, after a 0.1% decrease in March. The LAG's six-month growth rate was also positive at 0.8% between October 2024 and April 2025—a reversal of its 0.8% decline over the previous six months (April–October 2024).

The next release is scheduled for Friday, June 20, 2025, at 10 A.M. ET.

 

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the US

The composite economic indexes are key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. Comprised of multiple independent indicators, the indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component.

The CEI reflects current economic conditions and is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive tool that anticipates—or "leads"—turning points in the business cycle by around seven months.

The ten components of the Leading Economic Index® for the US are:

• Average weekly hours in manufacturing
• Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
• Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials
• ISM^® Index of New Orders
• Manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
• Building permits for new private housing units
• S&P 500^® Index of Stock Prices
• Leading Credit Index^™
• Interest rate spread (10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds rate)
• Average consumer expectations for business conditions

The four components of the Coincident Economic Index® for the US are:

• Payroll employment
• Personal income less transfer payments
• Manufacturing and trade sales
• Industrial production

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What's Ahead™. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org 

 

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SOURCE The Conference Board