JD Logistics, Inc. (HKG:2618) Just Released Its First-Quarter Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates

Shareholders might have noticed that JD Logistics, Inc. (HKG:2618) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.8% to HK$11.62 in the past week. JD Logistics reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of CN¥47b and statutory earnings per share of CN¥0.98, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

We've discovered 1 warning sign about JD Logistics. View them for free.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from JD Logistics' 21 analysts is for revenues of CN¥204.4b in 2025. This would reflect a decent 8.9% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥204.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.06 in 2025. Overall, while the analysts have reconfirmed their revenue estimates, the consensus now no longer provides an EPS estimate. This implies that the market believes revenue is more important after these latest results.

See our latest analysis for JD Logistics

There's been no real change to the consensus price target of HK$17.47, with JD Logistics seemingly executing in line with expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on JD Logistics, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at HK$23.29 and the most bearish at HK$11.50 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that JD Logistics' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 12% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 17% p.a. growth over the last three years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.9% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while JD Logistics' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The clear take away from these updates is that the analysts made no change to their revenue estimates for next year, with the business apparently performing in line with their models. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at HK$17.47, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

We have estimates for JD Logistics from its 21 analysts out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that JD Logistics is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.