PHINIA Inc. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on PHINIA Inc. (NYSE:PHIN), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its first-quarter results last week. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$796m, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 30%, coming in at just US$0.63 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, PHINIA's five analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be US$3.36b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to leap 104% to US$3.89. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$3.33b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.75 in 2025. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

View our latest analysis for PHINIA

The average the analysts price target fell 7.7% to US$49.83, suggesting thatthe analysts have other concerns, and the improved earnings per share outlook was not enough to allay them. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values PHINIA at US$63.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$46.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await PHINIA shareholders.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's also worth noting that the years of declining revenue look to have come to an end, with the forecast stauing flat to the end of 2025. Historically, PHINIA's top line has shrunk approximately 5.4% annually over the past year. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 9.7% annually. Although PHINIA's revenues are expected to improve, it seems that it is still expected to grow slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards PHINIA following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that PHINIA's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of PHINIA's future valuation.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for PHINIA going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for PHINIA that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.