Alior Bank S.A. (WSE:ALR) shareholders have seen the share price descend 11% over the month. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last half decade have been spectacular. Indeed, the share price is up a whopping 643% in that time. So we don't think the recent decline in the share price means its story is a sad one. But the real question is whether the business fundamentals can improve over the long term. Anyone who held for that rewarding ride would probably be keen to talk about it.
So let's assess the underlying fundamentals over the last 5 years and see if they've moved in lock-step with shareholder returns.
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
Over half a decade, Alior Bank managed to grow its earnings per share at 61% a year. The EPS growth is more impressive than the yearly share price gain of 49% over the same period. Therefore, it seems the market has become relatively pessimistic about the company. This cautious sentiment is reflected in its (fairly low) P/E ratio of 6.00.
The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
It is of course excellent to see how Alior Bank has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Alior Bank the TSR over the last 5 years was 677%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
Alior Bank shareholders gained a total return of 7.5% during the year. But that return falls short of the market. If we look back over five years, the returns are even better, coming in at 51% per year for five years. It may well be that this is a business worth popping on the watching, given the continuing positive reception, over time, from the market. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Alior Bank better, we need to consider many other factors. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Alior Bank that you should be aware of before investing here.
Of course Alior Bank may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Polish exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.