Analysts Have Made A Financial Statement On GATX Corporation's (NYSE:GATX) First-Quarter Report

Shareholders might have noticed that GATX Corporation (NYSE:GATX) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.0% to US$144 in the past week. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of US$422m and statutory earnings per share of US$2.15. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from GATX's three analysts is for revenues of US$1.72b in 2025. This reflects a reasonable 6.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to accumulate 8.4% to US$8.62. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.71b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$8.64 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for GATX

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$173, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic GATX analyst has a price target of US$182 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$160. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's clear from the latest estimates that GATX's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 8.0% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 6.1% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.9% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that GATX is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$173, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple GATX analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 3 warning signs for GATX (1 shouldn't be ignored!) that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.