Guosheng Securities: Quantum computing breaks through chemical R&D dimensional limits, the value of the industrial chain in 2030 may exceed 800 billion US dollars

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guosheng Securities released a research report saying that quantum computing can break through the molecular scale limitations of traditional chemical research and development and improve accuracy at the electronic level. It is particularly suitable for the development of new products lacking historical data. At present, quantum computing has entered the industrialization stage: in terms of hardware, the commercial value of special purpose machines has been highlighted, breakthroughs have been made in general-purpose machine error correction technology; in terms of algorithms, the “quantitative superfusion” model has become mainstream. Chemical research and development is expected to contribute 58% of the demand for quantum computing in 2030, and the value of the industrial chain will shift from being dominated by hardware to mainly software applications (accounting for 72%). China and the US are leading the way in industrial development. Hardware companies now enjoy high valuations, but companies that focus on algorithms, such as Sandbox AQ and Micro Era, have more potential for growth.

Guosheng Securities's main views are as follows:

Quantum technology - the “strategic highland” of power games, quantum computing is the most promising

After matter is subdivided to the point where it can no longer be divided, it is quantum. In the microscopic world, quanta will show characteristics such as superposition and entanglement. Based on these characteristics, the quantum technology industry has sprung up and is becoming a strategic highland for global technological supremacy. Quantum computing is one of the most promising fields of application. According to ICV and photon boxes, the total quantum industry is expected to reach 908.9 billion US dollars in 2035. At that time, quantum computing will dominate nearly 90% of the space, and the market size will exceed 800 billion US dollars.

Quantum Computing: Breaking through dimensional bottlenecks and starting a paradigm revolution in chemical research and development

Quantum computing is a parallel calculation method. If you use a maze treasure hunt as an analogy: quantum computing is like looking down at a maze (adding dimensions) to find a “treasure,” compared to classical calculation that only looks ahead to find a path ahead, the ability to grasp the location of a treasure is naturally greatly improved. As far as chemical research and development is concerned, quantum computation can solve problems from the electronic scale (traditional research and development is generally at the molecular scale, AI4S mainly at the atomic scale), thereby penetrating the microscopic world, analyzing dimensions such as wave functions and excited states that cannot be considered in traditional R&D, and significantly improving the accuracy of research and development. Traditional chemical research and development is close to bottlenecks in many fields. Quantum computing is very aggressive against new products that lack historical data, and AI for Science is very suitable for product fields that have accumulated enough valid data. The combination of quantum computing and AI for Science can better and more comprehensively solve chemical research and development problems, which is likely to become a future paradigm for chemical research and development.

Quantum computing is no longer a fantasy; it has entered a golden age of all-round implementation

A qubit is the smallest information processing unit in quantum computing. Today, quantum computing is making all-round industrialization breakthroughs from the hardware ((comparison bit)), software, and application level (control bit):

Hardware: Special purpose machines sounded the trumpet of commercialization, and quantum computing entered a “time in progress”. The hardware difficulty is selecting the correct quantum state carrier and taking into account the number of bits and fidelity, so that the calculation is fast and accurate. Special machines can perform quantum simulation processes, have strong bit expandability, are suitable for solving specific problems, and have outstanding commercial value; general-purpose machines also need to solve error correction problems, but Google Willow chips have already made a breakthrough in quantum error correction, laying the foundation for large-scale fault-tolerant general-purpose machines in the future.

Algorithms: The time is right for “quantitative hyperconvergence” industrialization. Assisted by quantum computing and supercomputing, the combination of the two is a long-term model that quantum computing will experience as it moves towards industrialization. For example, in hybrid algorithms, the tasks of solving quantum entanglement effects and optimizing parameters can be handled separately by quantum computation and supercomputing.

Chemical research and development is expected to contribute 60% of quantum computing needs in the medium term

Currently, the value of the quantum computing industry chain is mainly hardware. According to the microscopic era, software, applications, and hardware are expected to account for 33%, 39%, and 28% of the value of software and applications in the quantum computing industry chain in 2030, respectively, and the value of software and applications in the quantum computing industry chain will surpass hardware. Chemical research and development involves a large number of multi-dimensional complex problems, requiring high accuracy, and is particularly suitable for solving by quantum computation. According to ICV, it is estimated that 58% of downstream demand for quantum computing in 2030 will be contributed by chemical research and development (chemical and pharmaceutical combined).

Industrial ecology: China and the US lead, algorithm enterprises have remarkable potential

China and the United States have the most complete quantum technology industry chains in the world. Currently, most of the quantum computing market targets in China and the US focus on hardware, and enjoy a high PS valuation in the secondary market ((IONQPS lowest, reaching 94X): IONQ is superior to ion traps, Rigetti is deeply involved in superconductivity, D-Wave focuses on ion annealing, QCI started with software but also takes into account hardware; China's National Shield quantum business mainly focuses on quantum communication and quantum detection, and also provides quantum computer supporting hardware such as dilution coolers. In view of the changing trend in value distribution in the industrial chain, companies focusing on algorithms and applications have excellent growth potential. The representative enterprise focusing on quantum algorithms in the US is Sandbox AQ, which has a primary market valuation of 5.75 billion US dollars. The domestic representative focus on quantum algorithms is the micro era, which emphasizes in-depth cooperation with the Microscopic Era and the Yangtze River Delta Center for Quantum Technology.

Risk warning: Technology route selection is wrong, downstream demand release is slow, and technology development falls short of expectations.