US stock outlook | Futures for the three major stock indexes fell sharply. The US index fell below 98 for the first time, and gold broke $3,400 for the first time

1. On April 21 (Monday), the futures of the three major US stock indexes fell sharply before the US stock market. As of press release, Dow futures were down 1.10%, S&P 500 futures were down 1.31%, and NASDAQ futures were down 1.74%.

2. As of press release, the German DAX index fell 0.49%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose slightly, the French CAC40 index fell 0.60%, and the European Stoxx 50 index fell 0.63%.

3. As of press release, WTI crude oil fell 2.45% to $62.44 per barrel. Brent crude oil fell 2.30% to $66.40 per barrel.

Market news

The trade war boosted safe-haven demand. Spot gold surpassed 3,400 US dollars/ounce, and the US dollar index fell below 98 at one point. As the US-led trade war supported demand for safe-haven assets, the price of gold rose to record levels, and the data to be released in the next few days may highlight early signs of damage to the global economy. As of press release, spot gold has broken through the $3,400 per ounce mark. Markets expect the International Monetary Fund to lower economic growth forecasts on Tuesday, while the purchasing managers' index released the next day will provide an overview of economic activity since US President Donald Trump introduced tariffs. Gold prices have repeatedly reached new highs this year as trade conflicts disrupted global markets, dampened interest in risky assets, and boosted demand for safe-haven assets. Gold-backed exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings continued to expand over the past 12 weeks, the longest period since 2022. Also, the US dollar index fell below 98 on Monday, the first time since March 2022.

The trend of US stocks this week still depends on the “face” of tariffs. Google (GOOGL.US) and Tesla (TSLA.US) earnings are in full swing. The Trump administration's erratic tariff policy is putting pressure on the stock market. Last week, the Dow fell 2.66%, the NASDAQ fell 2.62%, and the S&P 500 fell 1.5%. In the coming week, Trump's policies will remain the focus of market attention, while several S&P 500 companies will announce quarterly results. Earnings from Google (GOOGL.US), Tesla (TSLA.US), Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG.US), Boeing (BA.US), and Verizon (VZ.US) will lead the market this week. More than 120 S&P 500 companies are expected to release quarterly earnings this week. US economic data is expected to be calm this week, focusing mainly on manufacturing and service activity and consumer confidence data.

Tariffs have aroused dissatisfaction among Americans, and Trump's approval rating for economic issues has reached a record low. According to a survey of 1,000 people across the US, US President Donald Trump's net approval rating for dealing with economic issues was negative for the first time. 53% of respondents disagree with Trump's approach to the economy, and 43% agree. Overall, 44% of respondents acknowledged Trump's presidential performance, and 51% disagreed, which is slightly better than when Trump's first term as president ended. Trump's Republican base remains steadfast in his support. Blue-collar workers remain positive about Trump's handling of the economy, but their disapproval rate is 14 percentage points higher than the average for Trump's first term. Blue-collar workers are the key to Trump's election victory.

Trump continues to pressure Powell! Chicago Federal Reserve Chairman warns: Don't limit the independence of the Federal Reserve. Chicago Federal Reserve Chairman Austin Goolsbee (Austan Goolsbee) warned against Trump's attempt to limit the independence of the Federal Reserve last Sunday after US President Trump continuously pressured Federal Reserve Chairman Powell recently. In a program, he said, “Economists almost agree that monetary independence is free from political interference, that is, the Federal Reserve or any central bank can do what it needs to do, which is really important.” Goulsby said, “I strongly hope we don't fall into an environment where our monetary independence is being questioned. This will damage the credibility of the Federal Reserve.” He added that in countries where central banks have no monetary independence, “the truth is that inflation is higher, economic growth is slower, and the job market is worse.”

Trump's allies “defy” Powell: no president has the right to remove the chairman of the Federal Reserve. Recently, US President Trump has intensified his criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. On Thursday, Trump publicly stated that he was “unhappy” with Powell. On Friday, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett emphasized “studying” whether the US president has the power to replace the chairman of the Federal Reserve. Later in the day, Trump also accused Powell of refusing to cut interest rates. However, last Sunday, Louisiana Republican Senator John Kennedy said in an interview that he believes Powell will not leave office because of this. “I don't think the president, any president, has the right to remove the chairman of the Federal Reserve,” Kennedy said. “The Federal Reserve should maintain its independence.” Kennedy went on to suggest that Trump and Powell “should sit down and have a good conversation with a cup of hot cocoa.”

Individual stock news

Tesla (TSLA.US) mostly raised the alarm: Musk needs to leave DOGE. Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives once again sounded a wake-up call for Tesla, warning that CEO Elon Musk is also facing difficulties as the electric car maker prepares to announce first-quarter results on Tuesday. Ives said in a report on Sunday: “Musk needs to leave the Trump administration, drastically reduce his participation in the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), and return to being Tesla's CEO full time. Tesla is Musk, Musk is Tesla... Anyone who thinks that the damage Musk has caused to the brand is not real... you might as well talk to American, European, and Asian car buyers... You'll think differently after these discussions.”

Under the impact of tariff policy uncertainty, Volvo (VLVLY.US) plans to lay off 800 employees at its US plant. Due to uncertainty about how US President Trump's tariff policy will affect demand, Volvo plans to lay off up to 800 workers at three US plants within the next few months. Trump's tariff policy has wreaked havoc on the automotive industry, which now faces the serious challenges of rising costs and supply chain turbulence. According to reports, Volvo has notified employees that it will lay off 550-800 workers at its Mack Trucks plant in McQueen, Pennsylvania, and two Volvo plants in Dublin, Virginia and Hagerstown, Maryland. The media quoted a spokesperson as saying that Volvo needs to adjust production to accommodate the decline in market demand for its cars. According to Volvo's website, the company has nearly 20,000 employees in North America.

Tesla (TSLA.US)'s “Made in America” postponed? Production of the lower-cost Model Y may be postponed this year until next year. Tesla's much-anticipated plan for an affordable model has been thwarted, and production of the low-cost Model Y in the US will be delayed for several months. On Friday EST, the media reported that Tesla originally promised to launch more affordable electric vehicles in the first half of this year, but production plans in the US have now been delayed. Production of this low-cost Model Y (internal code name E41) is expected to be delayed until the third quarter to the beginning of next year, far behind Tesla's publicly promised schedule. Currently, the long-range all-wheel drive version of the Model Y sells for about 49,000 US dollars in the US market (not including the $7,500 tax credit). Earlier reports indicated that the E41 to be launched in the future will be smaller than the current Model Y, and production costs are expected to be reduced by 20%.

AstraZeneca (AZN.US) Class 1 innovative breast cancer drug has been approved in China. On April 18, the official website of China's National Drug Administration (NMPA) recently announced that it approved the launch of AstraZeneca's Class 1 innovative drug capivasertib (capivasertib). The product was approved and marketed by the US FDA in November 2023 (trade name: Truqap) for the treatment of adult patients with advanced or metastatic breast cancer who are positive for hormone receptor (HR) and negative for human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2).

Key economic data and event forecasts

20:30 Beijing time: 2025 FOMC ticketing committee and Chicago Federal Reserve Chairman Goulsby was interviewed by CNBC.

22:00 Beijing time: Monthly rate of the leading indicators for the US March Conference.

The 2025 Spring Meeting of the World Bank and IMF is yet to be held.

Performance Forecast

Tuesday pre-market: GE Aerospace (GE.US), Verizon (VZ.US)

After hours on Tuesday: Tesla (TSLA.US), SAP (SAP.US)