The EIA released the April short-term energy outlook report, which mentioned that recent developments in trade policies and oil production led to a sharp drop in oil prices in the first week of April. Prices of crude oil and other commodities are expected to continue to fluctuate significantly as market participants assess the impact of trade policies. Our assessment is that the growth in oil demand is likely to decrease, so expectations for global oil demand were lowered accordingly. Global oil consumption is now expected to increase by 900,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 1 million barrels per day in 2026, which is 400,000 barrels per day and 100,000 barrels per day lower than the values predicted in the “Short-Term Energy Outlook” last month, respectively. However, as recent trade policy updates have broadened the range of possible GDP growth outcomes, this forecast is highly uncertain.

The EIA released the April short-term energy outlook report, which mentioned that recent developments in trade policies and oil production led to a sharp drop in oil prices in the first week of April. Prices of crude oil and other commodities are expected to continue to fluctuate significantly as market participants assess the impact of trade policies. Our assessment is that the growth in oil demand is likely to decrease, so expectations for global oil demand were lowered accordingly. Global oil consumption is now expected to increase by 900,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 1 million barrels per day in 2026, which is 400,000 barrels per day and 100,000 barrels per day lower than the values predicted in the “Short-Term Energy Outlook” last month, respectively. However, as recent trade policy updates have broadened the range of possible GDP growth outcomes, this forecast is highly uncertain.