Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries S.A. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

There's been a notable change in appetite for Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries S.A. (ATH:MOH) shares in the week since its annual report, with the stock down 13% to €20.00. Revenues were in line with forecasts, at €12b, although statutory earnings per share came in 16% below what the analysts expected, at €2.62 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries after the latest results.

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Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from eight analysts covering Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries is for revenues of €11.4b in 2025. This implies a perceptible 6.9% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to expand 10% to €2.89. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €11.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of €2.82 in 2025. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of €25.92, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €29.80 and the most bearish at €20.90 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 6.9% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 14% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 0.04% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 4 warning signs with Motor Oil (Hellas) Corinth Refineries (at least 2 which shouldn't be ignored) , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.