The Zhitong Finance App learned that according to Dow Jones market data, since January 17 (the Friday before President Trump was sworn in and began his second term), the US stock market has evaporated a total market value of about 11.1 trillion US dollars. Among them, in the past two days of Thursday and Friday alone, it lost about 6.6 trillion US dollars, setting the record for the largest two-day market capitalization contraction in history.
The trigger for this sharp decline stemmed from the Trump administration's sudden announcement on Wednesday of a new round of tariff plans far exceeding market expectations, which caught investors by surprise. XTB Research Director Kathleen Brooks pointed out in an email comment that the financial market is putting strong pressure on the White House to cut proposed tariffs or announce substantial progress in negotiations.
Although President Trump wrote on Truth Social on the same day that he had “productive calls” with Vietnamese leaders, leading to a 3% rise in the stock price of Nike (NKE.US), which has mass production facilities in Vietnam, this news did not effectively stop the general market decline.
Although the March employment data released on Friday was better than expected, market sentiment was not significantly boosted. Investors' concerns focus on the risk of further escalation of the Sino-US trade war. Jay Woods, chief market strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, warned in an interview: “If the US continues to fight back hard, the technology industry and the overall economy may be damaged, which in turn will trigger a recession and may end the bull market we are familiar with.”
By Friday's close, the S&P 500 index had a cumulative decline of 15.4% since Trump took office again. The decline had already surpassed George W. Bush's performance in the same period 75 days before his first term. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 11.9%; while the Russell 2000 Index, which is dominated by small-cap stocks, had the worst start since each new administration took office.
Notably, although the Nasdaq index hit a record closing high of 20,056.25 points on February 19, it has since fallen by more than 22%, officially entering a technical bear market. Since reaching a record high of 2,442.03 points on November 25 last year, the Russell 2000 Index has accumulated a cumulative decline of more than 25%, and has also fallen into a bear market zone.
As of this Friday, US stocks as a whole recorded their biggest weekly decline since the COVID-19 crisis in March 2020.
Analysts pointed out that weak market performance in the early days of a new president's presidency was not unusual, but the extent of this sell-off was “extremely extreme.” Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, said that judging from historical rules, the third and fourth years of the presidential term usually ushered in stronger stock market performance, while the first quarter of the first year was often relatively dull.
However, in the current context of increasing trade policy uncertainty, pressure on technology stock valuations, and heightened risk of recession, the market urgently needs the government to release a more clear signal of mitigation in trade policy to restore investor confidence.