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    Record EBITDA May Change The Case For Nexa Resources Stock

    Simply Wall St·11/01/2026 09:34:20
    語音播報
    • Nexa Resources reported third quarter 2026 sales of US$937 million with a net loss of US$63 million, alongside record adjusted EBITDA supported by higher zinc prices and operational progress at key assets.
    • The mix of stronger year to date earnings, improved byproduct contributions and heavier capital spending on projects like Aripuanã and Cerro de Pasco puts Nexa Resources’ cash generation and reinvestment priorities in sharper focus.
    • We now look at how Nexa Resources’ investment narrative could shift given record adjusted EBITDA supported by higher zinc prices.
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    Nexa Resources Investment Narrative Recap

    Owning Nexa Resources means believing that higher quality zinc output and steadier operations can offset the swings of a commodity driven business. The recent quarter showed record adjusted EBITDA helped by zinc prices and byproducts, even while the firm reported a net loss of US$63 million on US$937 million of sales. For the near term, the key swing factor stays clear: Aripuanã and overall mine stability remain the main operational catalyst, not quarterly headline earnings volatility.

    On the risk side, debt and heavy capital spending still matter more than this single quarter. Management lifted 2026 CapEx guidance to fund mine development and tailings work, which concentrates pressure on cash generation. If execution at Aripuanã or Cerro de Pasco slips, or if pricing weakens, the balance sheet could feel tighter. If operations keep trending in line with current commentary, the latest results do not radically change that risk reward profile.

    The most relevant update tied to this earnings release is Nexa Resources moving closer to full capacity at Aripuanã while working toward closing the Boliden transaction in early 2027. The mine now benefits from a fourth tailings filter, which supports more stable throughput. For you as a shareholder, the operational ramp at Aripuanã is the practical trigger to watch because it touches volumes, unit costs and cash in a single asset.

    The anticipated sale of Votorantim's controlling stake to Boliden adds another layer. Ownership change can affect capital allocation priorities and appetite for reinvestment or deleveraging, even if the assets themselves do not change overnight. Until that deal closes, the execution story still hinges on Nexa Resources delivering on higher EBITDA, controlling CapEx creep and keeping leverage manageable while zinc and byproduct prices move around.

    Nexa Resources' current earnings are US$277.6 million. Analysts expect revenues to decline by 1.1% annually, with consensus forecasts pointing to US$3.3 billion of revenue and US$259.9 million of earnings by 2029, which implies an earnings decrease of about US$17.7 million from today.

    Uncover why Nexa Resources' fair value indicates a 34% potential upside to its current price that may not last much longer.

    NYSE:NEXA 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    NYSE:NEXA 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    One alternate view on Nexa Resources puts the Boliden change of control at the center. The more optimistic analysts were modeling revenue of about US$4.1b and earnings of roughly US$527.8 million by 2029, compared with the broader group nearer US$3.3b and US$259.9 million. This latest earnings release may prompt both camps to revisit those stories.

    Explore 3 other Nexa Resources fair value estimates, including one that suggests as much as 35% upside from the current price.

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