Geely Automobile Holdings Limited Recorded A 8.7% Miss On Revenue: Analysts Are Revisiting Their Models
Shareholders might have noticed that Geely Automobile Holdings Limited (HKG:175) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.9% to HK$13.84 in the past week. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at CN¥99b, statutory earnings were in line with expectations, at CN¥1.63 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Geely Automobile Holdings after the latest results.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Geely Automobile Holdings from 26 analysts is for revenues of CN¥461.0b in 2027. If met, it would imply a substantial 22% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 39% to CN¥2.29. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥468.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥2.37 in 2027. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.
Check out our latest analysis for Geely Automobile Holdings
The average price target fell 9.7% to HK$25.23, with reduced earnings forecasts clearly tied to a lower valuation estimate. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Geely Automobile Holdings at HK$34.50 per share, while the most bearish prices it at HK$14.04. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Geely Automobile Holdings' past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Geely Automobile Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 18% annualised growth rate until the end of 2027 being well below the historical 27% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 11% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Geely Automobile Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Geely Automobile Holdings' future valuation.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Geely Automobile Holdings analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Geely Automobile Holdings .
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