Kalshi and Polymarket See Democratic House and Senate: Where 12 Key Senate Races Stand

Three days before the U.S. midterm elections, prediction markets are bullish on a Democratic sweep.

As of noon ET on Saturday, both Kalshi and Polymarket give Democrats a 71% chance of winning control of the Senate and a 94% chance of taking control of the House by winning about 235 seats.

Key Senate Races Favor Democrats in Polls and Prediction Markets

Prediction market participants see a 53-47 Democratic majority in the upper chamber. Here’s what the predictions and the polls are showing in key races:

• Alaska: Mary Peltola (D) leads Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) in polling averages 50.1% to 48.2%. Kalshi gives Peltola a 69.3% chance of victory, while Polymarket gives Peltola a 71.5% chance.
• Florida: Sen. Ashley Moody (R) is at 50.0% and Angie Nixon (D) 43.8% in polls. Kalshi has Moody at 88.1% and Polymarket has her at 90.5%.
• Iowa: Josh Turek (D) is at 46.1% and Ashley Hinson (R) at 45.7%. But the prediction markets give Hinson an edge. Kalshi has her at 55.4%, Polymarket at 55.5%.
• Kansas: Adam Hamilton (D) has taken a late polling lead of 48.7% to 45.4% over Sen. Roger Marshall (R), and Kalshi now gives Hamilton a slight edge of 50.5%. Polymarket has Hamilton at 51.7%. At the start of 2026, Kalshi had the incumbent at 94% odds and even on September 1, Marshall was at 84%.
• Maine: Troy Jackson (D) leads Sen. Susan Collins (R) 49.5% to 46.0%. Kalshi has Jackson at 67.6%, Polymarket at 68.5%.
• Michigan: Abdul El-Sayed (D) leads Mike Rogers (R) 49.3% to 44.6%. Kalshi has El-Sayed at 75.0%, Polymarket at 79.5%.
• Minnesota: Peggy Flanagan (D) leads Michele Tafoya (R) 49.5% to 42.1%. Kalshi has Flanagan at 90.5%, Polymarket at 91.5%.
• Mississippi: Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) leads Scott Colom (D) 44.6% to 40.4%. Kalshi has Hyde-Smith at 88.1%, Polymarket at 88.0%.
• Nebraska: Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) leads independent Dan Osborn, who has Democratic backing, by just one-tenth of a percentage point, 46.4% to 46.3%. But both Kalshi and Polymarket give the incumbent 75.0% odds.
• Ohio: Sherrod Brown (D) leads Sen. Jon Husted (R) 44.7%. Kalshi has Brown at 70.3%, Polymarket 73.5%.
• South Carolina: Sen. Darline Graham (R) leads Annie Andrews (D) 46.0% to 45.6%. Both Kalshi and Polymarket have Graham at 73.0%.
• Texas: James Talarico (D) leads Ken Paxton (R) 49.3% to 45.9%. Kalshi has Talarico at 70.3%, Polymarket 71.5%.

Why It Matters

The projections indicate that Democrats could gain control of both congressional chambers, potentially giving the party greater influence over legislation after the midterm elections.

The market outlook also highlights several competitive Senate contests. Alaska and Kansas have moved into Democratic-favored territory, while Florida, Mississippi, and Nebraska remain stronger positions for Republican incumbents.

Because the projections reflect market pricing rather than certified results, the expected seat totals and candidate odds remain subject to change before voters cast their ballots.