Earnings Miss: Storytel AB (publ) Missed EPS By 8.3% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts
It's been a good week for Storytel AB (publ) (STO:STORY B) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 7.3% to kr119. Storytel beat revenue expectations by 4.3%, at kr1.2b. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in at kr1.83, some 8.3% short of analyst estimates. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Following the latest results, Storytel's five analysts are now forecasting revenues of kr4.89b in 2027. This would be a notable 13% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be kr7.84, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of kr4.80b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr7.44 in 2027. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Storytel's earnings potential following these results.
See our latest analysis for Storytel
There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of kr127, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Storytel, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at kr140 and the most bearish at kr115 per share. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2027 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 10% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 9.5% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 4.9% annually. So although Storytel is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Storytel's earnings potential next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Storytel going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.
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