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    Learn Why The Bull Case For Vector (NZSE:VCT) Could Change Following Electricity Network Growth

    Simply Wall St·10/25/2026 23:34:42
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    • Vector Limited reported operating data for the quarter ended 30 September 2026, with 644,577 electricity customers, 3,478 new electricity connections, 2,491 GWh distributed, and a smaller gas base of 119,706 customers with 163 new connections and 3.5 distribution volume.
    • The contrast between expanding electricity connections and volumes, and a shrinking gas network, highlights how Vector’s customer mix is shifting toward electricity over time.
    • This quarter’s higher reported electricity volumes provide additional context for Vector's investment narrative around long term electrification.
    Spot opportunities that follow the same long term electrification trend as Vector by scanning our hand picked 42 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks.

    Vector Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Vector, you need to be comfortable with a long term electrification story anchored in Auckland and a gas network that is slowly shrinking. The latest quarterly update fits that picture. Electricity connections and volumes grew compared with a year ago, while gas customers and usage slipped, so the center of gravity keeps tilting toward power.

    The near term swing factor is how efficiently Vector can push through its heavy electricity investment program while keeping funding and operating costs under control. The main operational risk is that gas decline drags on earnings more than expected or that high debt and a dividend that is not well covered constrain flexibility. On these points, this quarter does not look like a major inflection.

    The operating data for the three months to 30 September 2026 is the key fresh disclosure. Electricity customers rose to 644,577 and new electricity connections to 3,478, while distributed volume reached 2,491 GWh. Gas distribution moved the other way, with customers easing to 119,706, new connections at 163 and volume at 3.5.

    For you as a shareholder, that mix matters more than the absolute numbers. Incremental electricity growth supports the long term case that Vector can keep building a larger regulated asset base and lean more on its electricity and services earnings. The continuing slide in gas usage underlines why the managed run down of that segment and careful balance sheet management remain central execution tests rather than side issues.

    What The Current Vector Forecasts Assume

    Vector's narrative projects NZ$1.4b revenue and NZ$328.5m earnings by 2029. This implies 5.0% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of about NZ$88m from current earnings of NZ$240.2m.

    Uncover how Vector's fair value indicates a 9% potential upside to its current price before the market closes the gap.

    NZSE:VCT 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    NZSE:VCT 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    Three fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly 1.0x to just over 5.0x the current Vector share price, so retail views range from mild upside to very large undervaluation. Before these quarterly numbers, that spread already showed how far opinions can diverge. Use the gas headwinds and long dated electrification plan as prompts to stress test several contrasting viewpoints rather than relying on a single narrative.

    Explore 2 other Vector fair value estimates, including one that suggests as much as 9% upside from the current price.

    Decide For Yourself

    Don't just follow the ticker. Dig into the data and build a conviction that's truly your own.

    Looking For More Ideas Beyond Vector?

    If Vector has you thinking about how your wider portfolio lines up with your goals, it can help to scan a broader set of companies using the same structured approach.