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    Could Nexa Resources (NEXA) Be 23% Undervalued On Earnings Hopes And Capex Risk?

    Simply Wall St·10/25/2026 11:38:16
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    Nexa Resources (NEXA) has come into focus after investors latched onto its low PEG and P/B ratios, as expectations build for an earnings update pointing to higher profit and revenue.

    In the short term, Nexa Resources has been choppy, with the share price falling 8.31% over the last week and 7.72% over the past month. However, the year-to-date share price return of 30.60% and a 1-year total shareholder return of 104.57% point to strong underlying momentum that recent consolidation has not erased.

    Spot under-the-radar value stories similar to Nexa Resources by scanning our hand-picked 29 high quality undervalued stocks with solid fundamentals backing their current pricing.

    Nexa Resources trades about 18% below the average analyst target and at an estimated 20% discount to intrinsic value after a recent pullback. Is this genuine mispricing, or is it justified caution around heavy capex and execution risk?

    Most Popular Narrative: 23% Undervalued

    Nexa Resources is framed as undervalued in the most followed narrative, with a fair value of $14.90 set against the last close at $11.48. That gap leans heavily on how future cash generation and capital spending risks are judged.

    The Cerro Pasco integration project and ongoing exploration programs require sizable sustaining and project CapEx, with 2025 guidance of US$347 million and exploration and project evaluation guided at US$88 million. Heavy reinvestment needs may constrain free cash flow available for debt reduction or shareholder returns and affect future earnings growth.

    See why 6 investors see Nexa Resources as 23% undervalued.

    Result: Fair Value of $14.90 (UNDERVALUED)

    Still, heavy CapEx at Cerro Pasco and the concentration of future zinc volumes at Aripuana could undermine the Nexa Resources undervaluation story if execution stumbles.

    Find out about the key risks to this Nexa Resources narrative.

    Next Steps

    Mixed signals on Nexa Resources so far. If you want to move past headlines and sentiment, go straight to the underlying risks and potential upsides in the 5 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

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