Can ETF inflows of $527 million hedge against the impact of weak US stocks on BTC?

According to Woofun AI, Bitcoin (BTC) showed a significant divergence between the short-term pullback and the record inflow of US Bitcoin spot ETF funds, and the market is closely watching this conflicting signal. Although prices fluctuated slightly due to macroeconomic pressure, strong institutional capital intervention provided a key buffer to the market, indicating that the demand structure is undergoing profound changes.

Over the past 24 hours, BTC has declined by around 1.1%, Ethereum (ETH) is down 1.7%, and the broader CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index is down 1.6%. Falling Asian stock markets and rising oil prices are the main triggers. Analysts at QCP Capital warned in Monday's report that if the weakness of NASDAQ 100 futures and S&P 500 futures continues, and related stocks such as Coinbase Global (COIN.US) and Galaxy Digital (GLXY.US) continue to fall, stock market deleveraging may affect the crypto market and even threaten the $80,000 support level.

According to data compiled by Woofun AI, the US Bitcoin Spot ETF recorded the largest net inflow in a month, totaling $527 million. Among them, BLK.US (BLK.US)'s IBIT (IBIT.US) performed the most impressive, recording capital inflows of US$665 million, setting a record for the highest single-day net inflow since 2026; in contrast, Fidelity and Grayscale products experienced capital outflows.

Meanwhile, Ethereum-related ETFs saw a net outflow of $103.3 million for the fourth day in a row, indicating that current funding preferences are highly focused on BTC rather than the industry as a whole.

At the macro level, if the price of US Treasury bonds continues to rise, along with the decline in real earnings and the weakening of the US dollar, it is expected to support risky assets. However, interest rates on US 10-year Treasury bonds are around 5.13%, Brent crude hit $110 per barrel, and geopolitics are increasing the risk of inflation. The market expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged next week, but predicts that interest rates may rise by 25 basis points next month. Technically, the BTC weekly line is still above the 50-week exponential moving average, and the RSI (Relative Strength Index) has not diverged, suggesting that the price is more likely to consolidate above the support level.