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    MGM Resorts International (MGM) Could Be 38% Undervalued On Withdrawn Offer And Resort Expansion

    Simply Wall St·10/18/2026 15:40:28
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    Recent commentary on MGM Resorts International (MGM) focuses on analysts trimming their modeled fair value after a proposed US$48.30 People Incorporated offer was withdrawn, while ongoing resort projects and expansion plans continue to influence sentiment.

    MGM Resorts International shares have retreated sharply in recent months, with the 30-day share price return down 24.36% and the 90-day move down 38.28%, while the 1-year total shareholder return has declined 9.44% and the 5-year total shareholder return is down 40.43%. Recent headlines around the withdrawn US$48.30 offer, the refreshed BetMGM responsible gambling campaigns, workforce initiatives for older adults, and preparation for the MGM Osaka resort opening in 2030 all contribute to a narrative in which near term momentum is fading. At the same time, long term projects and digital expansion keep investors focused on how sentiment might adjust as these initiatives progress.

    Spot under-pressure stories like MGM Resorts International and then compare them with a curated 33 high quality undervalued stocks, which may also be wrestling with sentiment shifts after recent news.

    The share price reset and trimmed fair value estimates now leave MGM Resorts International trading well below many analyst models. How wide is the gap between the recent US$28.60 pricing and the levels where valuations cluster?

    Most Popular Narrative: 38% Undervalued

    MGM Resorts International last closed at $28.60, while the most followed narrative framework pegs a fair value near $46 using a 12.54% discount rate. That gap rests on the idea that long dated resort projects and digital operations eventually feed into steadier earnings power than the current share price reflects.

    The Osaka integrated resort project, which is progressing on time and on budget with clearly outlined funding commitments through 2028, is expected to add a large new source of resort and gaming revenue once open and could diversify MGM Resorts International's earnings mix toward long term international cash flows.

    See why 19 investors see MGM Resorts International as 38% undervalued.

    Result: Fair Value of $46.02 (UNDERVALUED)

    Still, rising self insurance costs and MGM Resorts International's sizeable US$30.02b debt load could pressure cash flows enough to challenge the current undervaluation story.

    Find out about the key risks to this MGM Resorts International narrative.

    Next Steps

    Sentiment around MGM Resorts International is clearly mixed, with pressure on the share price offset by long term projects and digital efforts that some investors still back. If you want to move quickly and make up your own mind, start with the full picture of its 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs in the 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.