How Investors Are Reacting To Inpex (TSE:1605) Bonaparte CCS Approval
- Inpex completed a buyback of 12,638,100 shares, equal to 1.09% of its equity, for ¥48,910.18 million under the August 7, 2026 program.
- Regulatory recognition of the Bonaparte Basin CO₂ storage site gives Inpex a clearer path to link Ichthys LNG with a large scale CCS project that could cut related emissions by about 40%.
- This raises the question of how Inpex's investment narrative could evolve as the Bonaparte CCS approval intersects with capital allocation through buybacks.
Inpex Investment Narrative Recap
To own Inpex, you need to be comfortable with a story that links long-life LNG projects to a gradual decarbonization shift rather than fast growth. The Bonaparte CCS progress mainly relates to future carbon intensity and licence to operate. In the near term, the share price still depends more on commodity prices, Ichthys uptime and disciplined project delivery.
The biggest swing factor over the next couple of years remains execution on LNG and upstream expansion, set against a backdrop of analyst forecasts that indicate declining earnings and low revenue growth. Key risks cluster around cost overruns, project delays and a faster demand shift toward renewables that could pressure volumes and returns.
The completed ¥48,910.18 million buyback of 12,638,100 shares, equal to 1.09% of equity, is the announcement most directly connected to this CCS milestone. It shows Inpex returning cash at the same time as it prepares for capital-intensive decarbonization projects linked to Ichthys LNG and Bonaparte.
For you as a shareholder, the question is how that capital return profile interacts with modest forecast growth and a P/E that appears below the JP market but above some domestic peers. Future catalysts are likely to lie where these factors intersect: execution on Ichthys and Abadi, policy support for CCS and management discipline on further buybacks and dividends.
Inpex's current analyst script points to revenues of ¥2,226.5b and earnings of ¥432.7b by 2029, off a base of ¥377.0b in earnings today. That path assumes 4.1% yearly top line growth and an earnings increase of about ¥55.7b from current levels.
Uncover why Inpex's fair value indicates a 17% potential upside to its current price, a gap that could narrow quickly.
Exploring Other Perspectives
One alternate angle is the bullish catalyst around higher long term LNG cash flow. The most optimistic analysts were already pencilling in revenues of ¥2,586.8b and earnings of ¥509.7b by 2029, compared with the consensus ¥2,226.5b and ¥432.7b. Your view on this completed buyback and Bonaparte CCS milestone might shift that gap further.
Explore 2 other Inpex fair value estimates, including one that suggests as much as 36% upside from the current price!
Reach Your Own Conclusion
Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.
- A great starting point for your Inpex research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
- See our latest analysis for Inpex. The report includes a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual, the Snowflake, making it easy to evaluate Inpex's overall financial health at a glance.
Looking for more investment ideas beyond Inpex?
If the Inpex story has sharpened your thinking on risk, income and balance sheet strength, it can help to compare it with other companies that share some of those traits. The Simply Wall St Screener is a quick way to filter for different profiles that might fit your own approach.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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