Core single product sales have been verified again. When will LEGN.US (LEGN.US) reverse the “short strong medium weak” structure of stock prices

On October 13, Johnson & Johnson revealed its financial results for the 26Q3 quarter. During the reporting period, Johnson & Johnson achieved revenue of 25.4 billion US dollars in a single quarter, up 5.9% year on year; among them, the BMCA CAR-T drug CAR-T drug CARVYKTI, which was developed in collaboration with Legendary Biotech, had sales of 710 million US dollars in a single quarter, up 35.5% year on year; the drug's cumulative sales for the first three quarters of this year reached 1,964 million US dollars, an increase of 47.4% year on year.

However, this strong sales data did not bring about a significant rebound in LEGN.US stock prices.

The Zhitong Finance App observed that since July 28 this year, Legend Biotech's stock price has been fluctuating sideways at a low level for nearly 3 months. Although it closed up 6.49% on October 14 under the disclosure of CARVYKTI sales data, the final closing price of 19.04 US dollars only returned to the starting point of July 28.

After exploring the bottom, it ushered in a rebound and repaired

In Johnson & Johnson's financial report, although CARVYKTI's sales in the US remained flat month-on-month, looking at the BCMA CAR-T circuit, BMS's same-track product Abecma has not separately disclosed quarterly sales data since 26Q2, after disclosing a 21% year-on-year decline in sales to 81 million US dollars in the 26Q1 quarter. The pressure on its product competitiveness also reflects that CARVYKTI's leading edge as a racetrack leader has been further amplified.

In addition, Johnson & Johnson also stated in its earnings report that by the end of June this year, CARVYKTI had been listed in more than 20 countries and regions around the world, thus bringing it a sales increase of nearly 60% in the Q3 quarter of this year. The drug's share of global sales outside the US also increased to 33.5% from 24.4% in the same period last year. And this also directly shows that the geographical structure of sales of this drug has been optimized to a certain extent, and international commercialization is providing it with greater growth contributions.

Back on the Legendary Biotech market, after Johnson & Johnson revealed the Q3 quarterly report, Legendary Biotech's stock price showed a single-day trend on October 14. Meanwhile, the company's stock price simultaneously stood on the 5th, 10th, and 20th EMAs on the same day, and the MACD and KDJ indicators showed gold forks.

In particular, in the MACD indicator, in the past month from September 18 to October 12, although Legend Biotech's stock price only rebounded slightly from $17.61 to $17.80, the MACD DIF index rose sharply from -1.08 to -0.39, indicating a significant decline in short-term bearish momentum. Meanwhile, the company's stock price released in Changyang on October 14 is a technical confirmation of this bottom-up divergence. At this point, it is quite clear that Legendary Biotech's stock price will strengthen in the short term at the daily level.

In terms of quantitative performance, on October 14, Legendary Biotech's single-day trading volume reached 3.535,800 shares, reaching 1.61 times the previous average of the company in the past 20 days; the OBV index reached its 10-day EMA for the first time. This is also the first time since the September panic that the company's stock price has had short-term financial and technical resonance.

However, the return of funds in a single day, stimulated by news, is still difficult to support the subsequent trend reversal in Legend Biotech's stock price.

Back on the market, Legendary Biotech showed a clear high upper shadow on the K-line on October 14, and the length of the upper shadow line corresponded to about 3.86% of the stock price fluctuation. This means that when Legendary Biotech reached a high of $19.73 in the intraday market on the same day, it almost completed the turnover of more than 3 million shares within about 4% of the market, and quite a few of them sold at a high level rather than opened positions unilaterally. On the same day, the stock market accounted for 34.8% of Legend Biotech's stock price throughout the day, which also showed that it was under pressure at $20 or concentrated selling pressure at the institutional level.

On the other hand, although as mentioned earlier, the company's stock price showed a clear daily strengthening on the 14th, from a multi-cycle perspective, the weekly MACD indicator of legendary biological stock prices is still below the zero axis. The corresponding weekly RSI is still in the oversold zone of 32, while the ADX momentum index is in the “no trend” range of 17.6, thus forming the current “short strong to weak” structure of the company's stock price, so it is difficult to support the trend reversal logic at this stage.

Is the market waiting for a “second growth curve” or “competition to land”?

As sales of competitor Abecma fall behind, the number of CARVYKTI's own treatment lines continues to advance, and long-term efficacy continues to accumulate, the global commercialization logic of this product is quite clear. However, for Legendary Biotech, the reason the market is undervaluing is no longer the production and sales situation of CARVYKTI; instead, they are worried about Legendary Biotech's “equity ratio, profit margin, and long-term monopoly” on sales of this treatment.

It was then given a PS valuation of 2.91 times based on multiple structural discounts, which is not only significantly lower than the industry average of 9.09 times PS, but also 29% lower than its average PS valuation in recent March.

BOC International lowered CARVYKTI's sales forecast in a recently updated research report: Among them, sales of this treatment in 2026 fell 7% to US$2.57 billion from the previous caliber, while the peak sales forecast was lowered by 3% to US$6 billion 1. The reason given by the agency was that “as Carvykti outpatient treatment scenarios increase (accounting for about 60% of overall treatment), the net price discount (gross-to-net) will expand significantly.”

In terms of market exclusivity, Johnson & Johnson's own Tecvayli+DarzAlex combination and Gilead's potential erosion of Carvykti's market exclusivity is clearly also an important reason for lowering market expectations.

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Johnson & Johnson executives said in an earlier conference call that Johnson & Johnson's proprietary dual antibody combination Tecvayli + Darzalex has “potential for cure” (potential for cure) in second-line multiple myeloma. The market's interpretation of this is that in Johnson & Johnson's secondary market map for multiple myeloma, the Tecvayli+Darzalex combination is in the same position as Carvykti, which clearly weakens the market's expectations for Carvykti's monopoly position.

The marketing application for Gilead Anito-cel, another BCMA-targeting CAR-T variety, has now been accepted by the FDA for fourth-line relapsing/refractory multiple myeloma, and its PDUFA review deadline is December 23 this year. If this variety is successfully approved, the BCMA CAR-T global circuit will officially form a competitive pattern of the top three: CARVYKTI, Abecma, and Anito-cel. Previously, the agency predicted that Anito-cel four-line MM peak sales would be about 1.6 billion US dollars, and if extended to second-line treatment, the peak would reach 3.8 billion US dollars.

When CARVYKTI's sales expectations are difficult to meet the market's valuation needs for legendary creatures, a “new story” will become a “necessity.” And this new story is probably in vivo CAR-T, which previously led to a sharp rebound in the company's stock price.

On April 20 this year, Eli Lilly announced the acquisition of Kelonia for a total consideration of up to 7 billion US dollars to buy the company's core technology, iGPS, an in vivo CAR-T platform based on a modified lentivirus vector. Under favorable impetus, Legend Biotech's stock price directly rose 18.42% on the same day; on June 2, when Legend Biotech announced that it would first announce preliminary clinical data on its CD19/CD20 dual-targeted CAR-T cell therapy LB2501 in the form of the latest breakthrough oral report at the EHA annual meeting, the company's stock price surged 42.22% in a single day.

In fact, this was only the disclosure of early clinical data for LB2501, but this move broke the market's stereotype that legendary organisms only relied on large Carvykti products to support their valuation, which triggered the market to re-evaluate its subsequent value. At a time when market pricing is extremely pessimistic, if more data on the new pipeline can be disclosed later, it may allow Legendary Biotech to open up a good valuation repair window.