AlphaValue/Baader Europe Sees 'More Gradual' Recovery for LVMH Amid Ongoing Macro Pressures

05:47 AM EDT, 10/15/2026 (MT Newswires) -- AlphaValue/Baader Europe expects LVMH Moët Hennessy - Louis Vuitton's (MC.PA) revenue and margin recovery will be "more gradual" than previously anticipated, citing weakening demand in China, Middle East geopolitical tensions and US political uncertainty. "Near-term catalysts remain limited, and a sustained rerating will require clearer evidence of stabilising Chinese demand, renewed momentum at Louis Vuitton, and improving margin visibility," the research firm said Wednesday. "We remain constructive on the longer term value of LVMH's portfolio, while taking a more cautious view of the timing and pace of recovery." As such, the research firm lowered its EPS forecasts for full-year 2026 and 2027 by 5.27% and 6.03%, respectively, to 22.9 euros and 23.9 euros. The revisions accounted for the luxury goods giant's third-quarter results and downgraded earnings assumptions from the second half of 2026 and beyond. "The greater-than-expected decline in Fashion & Leather Goods, the group's most profitable division, has weakened revenue momentum and increased pressure on profitability," the note said. "Early signs of normalization in jewellery growth, alongside a more limited contribution from pricing going forward, also warrant more conservative assumptions." Against this backdrop, analysts cut their price target by 15.2% to 502 euros, while maintaining the buy rating on the stock. AlphaValue/Baader Europe said the current share price remains "highly attractive" even with reduced earnings forecasts and "more conservative" valuation projections.