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    Should Raised Earnings Guidance Require Action From National Grid (LSE:NG.) Investors?

    Simply Wall St·10/15/2026 00:30:29
    語音播報
    • National Grid raised its fiscal year 2027 earnings guidance after strong first half performance in National Grid Ventures & Other and highlighted one off fair value gains and solid interconnector results.
    • The guidance revision leans heavily on National Grid Ventures & Other, showing how non regulated activities can meaningfully influence group earnings expectations.
    • We will look at how National Grid's investment narrative shifts as stronger National Grid Ventures earnings power feeds into guidance.
    Pursue how National Grid’s earnings update fits within the wider power infrastructure story by lining it up against 43 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks.

    National Grid Investment Narrative Recap

    To own National Grid, you need to be comfortable with a regulated utility that plans to put around £60b into its networks over five years and leans on stable UK and US frameworks for returns. The raised 2027 EPS guidance tied to National Grid Ventures strengthens the near term earnings story but depends partly on one off gains that are unlikely to repeat.

    The biggest short term catalyst is execution on that investment plan without eroding allowed returns through higher costs or delays. The key risk remains regulatory decisions, from UK RIIO processes to US rulings, which could squeeze returns or change incentives if outcomes are tighter than expected.

    The most relevant update here is the guidance that National Grid Ventures & Other is expected to deliver about £130m of additional first half performance versus earlier expectations. That uplift comes from fair value gains in the NG Partners portfolio and stronger interconnector results, which feed directly into the raised full year 2027 earnings guidance.

    For you, the key question is how repeatable that contribution is compared with the ongoing earnings from the regulated grids. The uplift can act as a helpful buffer while National Grid manages inflation pressure, supply chain risks and planning hurdles on its £60b capital programme. However, it also increases the focus on execution discipline and regulatory outcomes once the one off items roll out of the base.

    Analysts expect National Grid's revenues to reach £23.2b and earnings to be £5.3b by 2029. That outlook assumes 9.4% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of about £2.1b from current earnings of £3.2b.

    Discover why National Grid's fair value points to a 13% potential upside from its current price, and why that gap could close quickly.

    LSE:NG. 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    LSE:NG. 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    Four fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community cluster in a tight £13.02 to £13.40 band, which shows how closely some retail investors are thinking about National Grid today. Those views were formed before the raised 2027 guidance and the recent FERC proceeding, so opinions may change as regulatory risks and new earnings signals are digested.

    Explore 3 other National Grid fair value estimates, including one that suggests up to 13% upside from the current price.

    Reach Your Own Conclusion

    Don't just follow the ticker. Dig into the data and build a conviction that's truly your own.

    Looking for more investment ideas beyond National Grid?

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.