RBC Tweaks Model for Commerzbank Ahead of Q3 on Rate Tailwinds

04:36 AM EDT, 10/14/2026 (MT Newswires) -- RBC Capital Markets updated its model for Commerzbank (CBK.F) ahead of the German lender's third-quarter earnings release on Nov. 5, citing higher net interest income expectations from favorable interest rates. "While most of the benefit from higher rates will come through beyond Q3, our updated estimates incorporating higher interest rates takes our PT up to EUR41 [from EUR40]. While we expect most of the focus to be on CBK's standalone performance, the impact of any [UniCredit] (UCG.MI) initiatives will likely be a topic of discussion," analysts said Tuesday. The research firm sees potential for Commerzbank to beat its 8.6 billion-euro net interest income outlook for full-year 2026 due to elevated short rates, while long-term rate benefits are expected to "take time" to feed into earnings. As such, RBC revised its 2026 net interest income forecast to 8.65 billion euros, at the top of management's guidance, with most of the rate tailwinds expected to peak in the fourth quarter and serve as a higher jumping-off point into 2027. "NII guidance for 2028 and 2030 should benefit from higher short and long rates with guidance on deposit betas already relatively conservative (2028: 44%, 2030: 46%). CBK is more likely to review 2028 and 2030 guidance with FY 2026 results, although we expect commentary to suggest that current guidance is conservative," analysts wrote. RBC has a sector perform rating on the stock.