NextView Ventures says seed valuation level shows little link to odds of 10x outcome

• NextView analysis argued seed-stage startup valuations are simultaneously overvalued due to high failure rates, yet undervalued as options on outsized outcomes.
• AngelList data on more than 6,000 pre-seed and seed rounds from 2015-2021 showed 10x outcomes were broadly similar across valuation deciles.
• Cheapest valuation decile posted about a 5% share of 10x outcomes, versus about 6% for the most expensive decile.
• Markups showed a modest skew toward higher-priced rounds, with 29% of bottom-decile deals marked up versus 42% for top-decile deals.
• Conclusion: “diamonds in the rough” can appear across the valuation curve, shifting emphasis to access, selection, and check sizing.

Disclaimer: This news brief was created by Public Technologies (PUBT) using generative artificial intelligence. While PUBT strives to provide accurate and timely information, this AI-generated content is for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial, investment, or legal advice. NextView Ventures LP published the original content used to generate this news brief on October 13, 2026, and is solely responsible for the information contained therein.