Netflix’s Q3 Guidance Calls for About 12% Revenue Growth. Here’s the Bar for Oct. 20

Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) shares are in the spotlight Monday, with earnings on deck, advertising and revenue growth in focus, recent analyst activity and a technical setup showing the stock trying to stabilize under its 20-day average.

Earnings Preview & History

Netflix is scheduled to report third-quarter earnings on Oct. 20 after the market closes. Analysts estimate earnings per share of 82 cents along with revenue of $12.88 billion. For the prior quarter, Netflix reported earnings per share of 80 cents, beating the consensus estimate of 79 cents. The company also posted revenue of $12.56 billion, missing the consensus estimate of $12.59 billion.

What to Watch: Revenue Growth, Advertising and Margins

Investors will be closely tracking revenue growth against Netflix’s third-quarter guidance of about $12.86 billion, or roughly 12% growth, after second-quarter growth slowed to 11% on an FX-neutral basis. Advertising will also be in focus, with S&P Global estimating second-quarter ad revenue at $618 million, up almost 80% from a year earlier but below expectations. Management’s operating margin guidance of 33.2% and its outlook for the rest of the year, including content spending that is expected to rise about 10% in 2026, should offer additional signals.

Analyst Consensus & Recent Actions

The stock carries a Buy rating with an average price forecast of $89.30. Recent analyst moves include:

• Morgan Stanley: Overweight (Lowers Target to $80.00) (Oct. 8)
• Barclays: Equal-Weight (Lowers Target to $70.00) (Oct. 7)
• TD Cowen: Buy (Maintains Target to $100.00) (Oct. 5)

Netflix Tries to Stabilize Under Its 20-Day Average

From a longer-term trend view, Netflix is still in a downtrend: the stock is trading 14.6% below its 200-day SMA ($83.45) and 42.33% lower over the past 12 months. It’s also trading 5.4% below its 50-day SMA ($75.33), keeping rallies vulnerable to selling pressure near overhead averages.

Near term, price is trying to stabilize just under the 20-day SMA ($71.66) and 20-day EMA ($71.49), which is often where "make-or-break" decisions happen for swing traders. If the stock can reclaim and hold above those short-term measures, it can shift the conversation from "bounce" to "base."

Momentum is improving on the MACD: it’s above its signal line and the histogram is positive, which suggests downside pressure is easing versus the prior downswing. In plain terms, when MACD is above its signal line, it often means the recent selling wave is losing control even if the bigger trend hasn’t fully turned.

Key levels are tight right now, which can amplify moves if either side breaks.

• Key Resistance: $82.50 — a nearby ceiling that lines up with an area where rebounds can stall well below the 200-day average
• Key Support: $70.50 — a close-by floor near the current price zone where buyers have recently been willing to defend

Netflix Shares Edge Higher

NFLX Price Action: At the time of publication, Netflix shares are trading 1.37% higher at $71.26, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

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