Is National Fuel Gas (NFG) Undervalued As Its 7% To 10% EPS Growth Plan Unfolds?
National Fuel Gas (NFG) is back on investor screens after its shares closed at $78.66, with recent performance showing modest gains over the past week but declines over the month and past 3 months.
Zooming out, the recent uptick sits against a wider picture where the year to date share price return is down 4.14%. At the same time, the 3 year total shareholder return of 59.83% and 5 year total shareholder return of 58.83% point to stronger long term momentum for National Fuel Gas.
Scan how National Fuel Gas compares to other regulated and infrastructure focused utilities by reviewing the hand picked 43 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks in the same corner of the market.
National Fuel Gas has a long running utility footprint and a recent share price that has drifted lower this year. The real issue now is whether that solid platform is already reflected in today’s US$78.66 valuation.
Most Popular Narrative: 15.4% Undervalued
On the most followed view of National Fuel Gas, a fair value of $93.00 sits meaningfully above the recent $78.66 close. This puts the focus squarely on whether the long term plan actually plays out as modeled.
The current valuation implies investors are not fully pricing in the company’s plan for 7% to 10% annual EPS growth through fiscal 2029, the projected US$1.0b to US$1.5b of free cash flow, and the shift toward a higher regulated earnings mix. This is why this narrative views National Fuel Gas as undervalued and bullish.
See why 17 investors see National Fuel Gas as 15% undervalued.
Result: Fair Value of $93 (UNDERVALUED)
Still, the bullish National Fuel Gas story depends on smooth Ohio utility integration, as well as on upstream projects avoiding further guidance cuts or operational setbacks.
Find out about the key risks to this National Fuel Gas narrative.
Next Steps
Mixed sentiment runs through this National Fuel Gas story. Move quickly, review the full risk and reward breakdown, and decide where you stand with the 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.
Looking for more investment ideas beyond National Fuel Gas?
You have a clear view on National Fuel Gas. Now widen the lens and stress test your thinking against fresh opportunities before the next move passes you by.
- Target higher quality upside by scanning a focused set of underpriced opportunities using the 29 high quality undervalued stocks.
- Anchor your portfolio with potential income pillars by reviewing the 8 dividend fortresses to combine yield with resilience.
- Dial down portfolio stress by filtering for sturdier businesses through the 31 resilient stocks with low risk scores so setbacks in one holding do not dictate your whole outcome.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com