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    Airbus (ENXTPA:AIR) Stock May Be 37% Undervalued As A400M Order Talks Build

    Simply Wall St·10/10/2026 15:32:14
    語音播報

    Airbus has had a mixed share price journey, with strong gains over several years sitting alongside more recent weakness, which puts the spotlight squarely on whether today’s valuation is supported by the cash the business can generate. With high profile aircraft programs and defense contracts in the headlines, the real issue for you is how those projects translate into long term cash flows that can justify the current price tag.

    • Over the past 5 years the stock has delivered a return of 78.2%, which makes it important to test whether that performance lines up with the strength and durability of Airbus’s cash flows.
    • Fresh contract and product news, from potential additional German A400M orders to progress on the A350 freighter and ultra long range A350-1000 variants, may support expectations for future aircraft delivery volumes and the timing of cash coming back into the business.
    • What if you looked at Airbus through its earnings instead? See what Airbus's 25.0x P/E says about the price.

    The issue now is whether the cash that Airbus is expected to generate, when run through a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) lens, is enough to justify where the shares trade today.

    If you want a broader starting point for cash flow focused research beyond Airbus, take a look at 174 high quality undervalued stocks.

    Does Airbus Look Undervalued on Cash Flow?

    The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) approach here focuses on the cash that Airbus can return to shareholders over time. Latest twelve month free cash flow sits at about €4.8b, and the model assumes this moves onto a growing track over the decade rather than staying flat or shrinking.

    Analyst and in house projections point to higher annual free cash flows by 2030, which is consistent with Airbus leaning on large aircraft programs, cargo variants and defense work already in motion. On those cash flow paths, the DCF output suggests an estimated intrinsic value that is substantially above the current share price of €187.80. Because Germany is considering 16 additional A400M aircraft that could extend that line beyond 2030, the potential extra visibility on military transport production helps explain why cash flow based estimates sit above where the market is pricing the equity today. Find out what Airbus could be worth using our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) estimate.

    The Airbus Narrative: What Would Justify Today's Price?

    Simply Wall St Narratives take the valuation puzzle around Airbus and turn it into a set of clear, competing stories that spell out what would need to happen to growth, margins and earnings for the shares to be worth materially more or materially less than today’s price, all hosted on Airbus' Community page. Each narrative links its number to a specific view on how Airbus' future expansion, profitability and risk profile might evolve. You can revisit these narratives as fresh information comes through.

    One of the top community narratives on Airbus: 19% undervalued

    "Airbus is not a hyper-growth story. It is a backlog-driven, duopoly industrial platform with improving governance and operational discipline…"

    Discover why this Narrative puts Airbus at 19% undervalued.

    Airbus valuation is only one side of the decision

    Before making any long term call on Airbus, you also need to weigh who is steering the group, how their rewards are structured and whether those incentives really line up with your interests. See who runs Airbus and how they are paid.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.