What Happens When El Niño Hijacks the Indian Monsoon?
(SBV27) (CANE) (KCZ26) (CCZ26) (CTZ26) (ZSX26) (ZCZ26) (ZWZ26) (SIZ26)
“What Happens When El Niño Hijacks the Indian Monsoon?”
by Jim Roemer - Meteorologist - Commodity Trading Advisor - Principal, Best Weather Inc. & Climate Predict - Publisher, Weather Wealth Newsletter and Co-Producer of Climatelligence
Scott Mathews - Editor and Co-Producer of Climatelligence
- October 4, 2026
CLICK HERE to watch Jim Roemer's video
This video by Jim Roemer (aka “Dr. Weather”) discusses how the Indian Monsoon really works, how El Niño can interfere with it, and why commodity traders from sugar and cotton to grains and even precious metals should be paying attention.
The Indian Monsoon is one of the most powerful weather systems on Earth—and it can move commodity markets around the world.
Each summer, monsoon rains are critical for India’s sugarcane, cotton, rice, and other crops, affecting hundreds of millions of people and global food supplies. But this year, there’s a major wildcard: a strong El Niño.
El Niño can disrupt the normal monsoon circulation, shifting rainfall away from important growing regions and creating unusual patterns of drought, heat, and sometimes excessive rain.
Long the Sugar ETF (CANE) remains one of our top investment choices in ag commodities. We also think that cotton is grossly oversold with a low chance that prices will fall below 75 cents again. During recent weeks, we have seen a 15-20% collapse in cotton prices due to a large net-long position by speculators, along with technical selling.
Take a look at how depleted the Indian Monsoon has been for India’s cotton-growing areas. This, on top of a lower-than-average US crop, could mean that the price could go back to 90 cents by next year.
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Jim Roemer, Scott Mathews, and the BestWeather Team
Mr. Roemer owns Best Weather Inc., offering weather-related blogs for commodity traders and farmers. He is also a co-founder of Climate Predict, a detailed long-range global weather forecast tool. As one of the first meteorologists to become an NFA-registered Commodity Trading Advisor, he has worked with major hedge funds, Midwest farmers, and individual traders for over 35 years. With a special emphasis on interpreting market psychology, coupled with his short-term and long-term trend forecasting in grains, softs, and energy markets, he holds a unique standing among advisors in the commodity risk management industry.