What Comes Next For Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals After The 78% Run

If Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals was on your watchlist instead of in your portfolio, the outcome may feel costly. For Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals shareholders, the return over the past year was 77.7%, including dividends. That result invites a harder question. Back on 2 October 2025, when analysts were split between an RNAi-led expansion and fears about rising healthcare cost pressure, what could have helped you judge whether plozasiran’s path from filings to approvals was a realistic business assumption?

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals has already moved. Pinpoint other ways to investigate the theme among 35 healthcare AI stocks.

The Argument You Would Have Been Weighing On Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals

The shares cost US$34.6 at the start, so any view on Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals had to begin with whether that reflected its RNAi pipeline potential or its execution risks.

The bullish narrative pointed to a Fair Value of US$46.15, a price level implied by assuming revenue would fall 11.0% a year while profit margin eventually reached 14.2% and supported a future P/E of 166.8x.

The bearish view anchored on a Fair Value of US$17, built around revenue declining 48.6% annually, a later profit margin of 16.3%, and a much higher assumed future P/E of 277.8x if products eventually scaled.

What The Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Evidence Actually Showed

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals delivered positive Phase 3 SHASTA-3 and SHASTA-4 results for plozasiran in severe hypertriglyceridemia, which clearly supported the optimistic pipeline case. Revenue moved from US$27.767m in Q3 2025 to US$75.253m in Q3 2026, yet the business still reported a larger loss, with net income excluding extra items falling from US$175.241m lost to US$194.28m lost. The evidence cut both ways.

The decision turned on whether future RNAi products would convert scientific wins into sustainable profitability. For a different biotech, you would test that same assumption by pairing every big trial headline with the trend in reported net income and checking if losses are shrinking as new data arrive.

What Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals’ Price Now Assumes

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals trades today at US$64.19, after a 77.7% gain over the past year. The selected Narrative places its Fair Value above that level, but ties the argument to how resilient the RNAi franchise can be under stricter reimbursement and faster competitive pressure.

The same Narrative suggests today’s price still does not fully credit the possibility that a broader late stage pipeline and large pharma partnerships could support revenue and earnings if several cardiovascular programs progress as planned.

"Rising healthcare cost-containment pressures, especially in the U.S. and European markets, are expected to create a stricter reimbursement environment for high-priced, novel therapies such as Arrowhead's RNAi agents. This could significantly limit commercial pricing power and constrain topline revenue growth, even for first-in-class drugs such as plozasiran."

The price and this Narrative do not agree. → Uncover what this Narrative says Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals is actually worth

Where Could You Get There Earlier?

By the time a rally makes headlines, you are reading about returns someone else has already earned. Why not go straight to the source and look for your own contrarian opportunity? These three companies trade below our estimated value.

• Company 1 - 27% below our estimate - uses fresh capital and new engine tech to expand project capacity.
• Company 2 - 49% below our estimate - adds active clients while deepening digital payments and ecosystem cross-selling.
• Company 3 - 22% below our estimate - builds a larger tracker backlog while scaling storage, inverter and eBOS lines.

Those are three of them. See every one of the 31 undervalued companies on it →

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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