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    Rio2 (TSX:RIO) Starts Condestable Drilling, Is It Still A Bargain?

    Simply Wall St·10/04/2026 01:20:13
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    Rio2 (TSX:RIO) has kicked off a two phase surface drilling program at its Condestable Copper Mine in Peru, following extensive geological mapping, while temporarily halting drilling at Fenix Gold in Chile due to weather and safety issues.

    For Rio2, the operational update comes after a choppy few months, with the 7 day share price return down 10.25% and the 30 day share price return down 4.42%. Over a longer period, the 90 day share price return is up 8.72%, the 1 year total shareholder return is 63.64%, and the 3 year total shareholder return is very large, indicating strong long-run momentum from a higher base.

    Spot opportunities across copper, gold, and other resource producers by scanning our curated list of 36 elite gold producer stocks alongside Rio2’s latest drilling update.

    Bulls point to Rio2’s drilling plans and strong multi year returns, while bears focus on Fenix delays and recent share price weakness. Which side does the current valuation lean toward as you weigh the risk and reward here?

    Most Popular Narrative: 46% Undervalued

    Rio2 last closed at CA$3.24, while the most followed narrative on the stock anchors on a fair value of about CA$6.00, framing the current drilling news against a much higher long term earnings story.

    Rio2 appears significantly undervalued relative to its long-term earnings potential. Based on the platform’s future estimates, the company is expected to generate US$562.2 million in earnings by 2030, supported by strong revenue growth reaching US$5.85 billion. Using a 16.86× P/E multiple on these projected earnings results in an implied 2030 market capitalization of US$9.48 billion, or US$5.98 per share.

    When this valuation is discounted back to 2025 at 6.46% per year, the intrinsic value becomes US$4.37 per share. Converted at the current USD/CAD exchange rate of 1.3725, this corresponds to a fair value of approximately CA$6.00 per share.

    See why 5 investors see Rio2 as 46% undervalued.

    Result: Fair Value of CA$6.00 (UNDERVALUED)

    Still, Rio2 relies heavily on successful Fenix development and continued access to Peru and Chile, where permitting or safety setbacks could quickly challenge that 46% undervalued thesis.

    Find out about the key risks to this Rio2 narrative.

    Next Steps

    Plenty of investors see the Rio2 story through very different lenses, so move quickly, review the full picture, and weigh the 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

    Looking for more Rio2 investment ideas?

    If Rio2 has your attention, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist now, because the best opportunities rarely sit in plain sight for long.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.