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Huatai Securities pointed out that the September non-agricultural report fell short of expectations, and the urgency for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates continuously in the short term decreased. Due to large fluctuations in the monthly data for non-farmers, judging from the 3-month average, the number of new non-farm workers was 51,000, which is near the equilibrium employment level. The combined unemployment rate is still low, indicating that the job market is still stable but unspeakably tight. Non-agricultural agriculture weakened in September, compounded by a decline in wage growth. Actual income slowed in September, and it may be difficult for consumer consumption to continue the strong performance in August. Looking ahead, the forward-looking indicator NFIB's recruitment intentions indicate that Non-Farmers may still be weak in October, but there may be a rebound since then. Therefore, Huatai Securities believes that it will be difficult for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates continuously in October. Under the benchmark situation, it will raise interest rates again in December.

智通財經·10/03/2026 04:25:02
語音播報
Huatai Securities pointed out that the September non-agricultural report fell short of expectations, and the urgency for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates continuously in the short term decreased. Due to large fluctuations in the monthly data for non-farmers, judging from the 3-month average, the number of new non-farm workers was 51,000, which is near the equilibrium employment level. The combined unemployment rate is still low, indicating that the job market is still stable but unspeakably tight. Non-agricultural agriculture weakened in September, compounded by a decline in wage growth. Actual income slowed in September, and it may be difficult for consumer consumption to continue the strong performance in August. Looking ahead, the forward-looking indicator NFIB's recruitment intentions indicate that Non-Farmers may still be weak in October, but there may be a rebound since then. Therefore, Huatai Securities believes that it will be difficult for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates continuously in October. Under the benchmark situation, it will raise interest rates again in December.