October is back: Can ETF (IBIT.US) net inflows of $102.7 million hedge against the risk of macro rate hikes?

According to Woofun AI, Bitcoin once again faced seasonal tests after experiencing a sharp drop in October last year, but the market structure has fundamentally changed. Unlike the fragile state before the collapse a year ago, the current market is dominated by institutional capital rather than retail leverage. This difference determines that the resilience of this October round far exceeds expectations.

Buying was able to absorb strong selling pressure around $85,000, propelling Bitcoin to climb to $87,000 on October 2, a new high since September 23. Behind this trend is a recovery in institutional investment demand. According to data compiled by Woofun AI, the net inflow of the US Bitcoin Spot ETF (IBIT.US) reached US$102.7 million on October 1, injecting key liquidity into the market. After months of slowing capital inflows, the recovery in ETF activity is critical. This is in stark contrast to the situation in October 2025 and highlights the current structural improvements in funding.

Looking back on October 10 of last year, a tariff policy involving China triggered large-scale deleveraging. CoinShares estimated a liquidation loss of about $19 billion, which is one of the worst systemic crises in cryptocurrency history. At the time, Bitcoin had just broken through a record high of $122,000, and a sharp reversal ended its seven-year record of continuous gains in October, revealing the destructive power of high leverage on the bullish atmosphere. In contrast, this year's spot ETF mechanism provides a mature channel for institutional investors. Recent price increases have prompted more than $120 million in short positions to be liquidated, and the total amount of liquidation of the entire cryptocurrency market is about US$210 million. The leverage risk is significantly manageable.

The macroeconomic environment remains a core variable. The Federal Reserve raised the benchmark interest rate to 3.75%-4% on September 16, the first rate hike since 2023, but officials have lowered expectations for another rate hike in October.

Although inflation and US Treasury bond yields still pose risks, a more relaxed interest rate environment is expected to support risky assets. As a result, the US Federal Reserve meeting held from October 27th to 28th became a key point for traders to focus on observing in addition to ETF capital flows.