RBC Downgrades Commerzbank to Sector Perform Amid Execution Risk Tied to UniCredit Initiatives

12:03 PM EDT, 10/02/2026 (MT Newswires) -- RBC Capital Markets downgraded its rating on Commerzbank (CBK.F) to sector perform from outperform, citing the execution risk embedded in the German lender's strategic plan and UniCredit's (UCG.MI) initiatives for the bank. The research firm reduced the price target to 40 euros from 43 euros, which supports its updated rating, according to a Friday note. A speculative risk rating on the stock was also assigned, given the high volatility in earnings and Commerzbank's potential role in consolidation. "While UC's plan is to initially keep CBK and [HypoVereinsbank] separate, since the start of the UC approach we have considered an acquisition by CBK of UC's German unit HVB as a sensible move also to meet objectives of other stakeholders. We believe a resultant required mandatory offer by UC for mBank minorities will not prevent a CBK-HVB combination in the near term," the research firm said. "Value creation depends on assumptions that UC has made outside-in so it might be harder to crystalise in time once UC has gained full access. Assumptions on synergies are optimistic, but this is also reflected in the high level of restructuring charges. It remains to be seen on how UC manages the interests of various stakeholders although the German dependency and corporate law is designed to provide minority shareholder protection." RBC also made "small" changes to its estimates, including a 7% increase in its 2030 EPS forecast and a 1% to 12% rise in its cost of equity projections, noting that there is now "considerably less" visibility compared with its previous assumptions.