Rémy Cointreau (ENXTPA:RCO) has priced its first undated deeply subordinated fixed rate bond issue at €250 million with a 6.75% coupon, a funding move closely watched by equity investors.
Recent trading suggests investors are starting to reprice Rémy Cointreau as its balance sheet story shifts. The share price is up 20.88% year to date, while the 1 year total shareholder return is down 3.73% and the 5 year total shareholder return is down 70.82%. This points to improving short term momentum against a much weaker long term record as the new hybrid bond feeds into perceptions of both funding cost and financial risk.
Compare Rémy Cointreau's balance sheet reset with curated companies that also focus on funding strength and resilience through the list of solid balance sheet and fundamentals (205 results).
That rebound in Rémy Cointreau could be pointing to renewed faith in the brand portfolio, or it might just be sentiment snapping back after a harsh reset. How does the current valuation stack up against that backdrop?
The most followed valuation narrative puts Rémy Cointreau’s fair value at €35.00, which sits below the latest close at €43.88 and frames the recent rebound as pricing in a lot of future progress already.
The bearish analysts are assuming Rémy Cointreau's revenue will grow by 2.3% annually over the next 3 years. The bearish analysts assume that profit margins will shrink from 8.4% today to 8.1% in 3 years time.
See why 2 investors see Rémy Cointreau as 25% overvalued.
Result: Fair Value of €35.00 (OVERVALUED)
Still, the biggest threat to that overvalued story is execution on Rémy Cointreau’s €100m mid term EBIT plan and its push into higher margin digital and non cognac sales.
Find out about the key risks to this Rémy Cointreau narrative.
There is a twist when the SWS DCF model is brought in. On this approach, Rémy Cointreau at €43.88 screens as slightly undervalued versus an estimated future cash flow value of €47.73. One model flags overvaluation, the other underpricing. Which one lines up with your own assumptions?
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Rémy Cointreau for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 191 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.
Mixed messages on Rémy Cointreau so far, or a clear signal taking shape? If you want to move fast and make up your own mind, start by weighing the 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.
If Rémy Cointreau has sharpened your focus, do not stop here. Broader research can reveal opportunities you would otherwise miss and tilt the odds in your favor.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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