Homrich & Berg flags 37% diesel jump as new headwind for US consumer, retail earnings estimates

• Homrich & Berg flagged surging fuel costs as a growing headwind for the US consumer, with spillovers into select S&P 500 industries.
• US average diesel is up nearly 37% since early July. Unleaded gas has risen more than 18% over the same period.
• Headline S&P 500 earnings growth forecasts held steady, though more than half of industries saw 3Q cuts since early July.
• Downward revisions concentrated in consumer staples, consumer discretionary, parts of industrials, with transports also weakening as diesel climbed.
• Retailers look most exposed, with consumer discretionary retail and distribution the most negatively correlated to annual diesel changes since 2009.

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