CITIC Securities Mid-Autumn Festival National Day Holiday Travel Forecast: Holiday spurring long-term travel, with average daily growth or moderate
The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Securities released a research report saying that with the 2026 Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays split for a total of 10 days, “Please take 3 days off for 13” will form the longest travel window during the year. Some platforms recorded high increases in air ticket and hotel reservation data, but this was partly due to an increase in the number of vacation days and advance reservations. Based on the year-on-year trend in the number of holiday travelers and per capita spending during the year, the bank determined that the total number of domestic trips in the double quarter is expected to reach a new high, but the average daily performance may be relatively moderate, and the structure is skewed towards long-term destinations; outbound performance is expected to be better than at home, but it is still disturbed by travel cost pressure and geographical factors brought about by high fuel prices. The post-holiday fall vacation is expected to contribute to the increase, but off-season demand performance in the fourth quarter remains to be seen. It is recommended to focus on segment targets with resilient management, clear medium- to long-term logic, and buy-back or dividend support.
CITIC Securities's main views are as follows:
Vacation structure: The two sections are divided into a total of 10 days. “Please take 3 days off 13” forms the longest travel window during the year, unleashing the popularity of reservations.
In 2026, the Mid-Autumn Festival will be 3 days off and the National Day holiday will be 7 days apart. If you take a leave of absence from September 28 to 30, you can form 13 consecutive days of vacation from September 25 to October 7; in 2025, the National Day Mid-Autumn Festival will be combined into 8 days. Driven by this, some pre-holiday reservation data showed a significant increase: as of August 25, holiday ticket orders increased by about 50% year on year and hotel orders nearly tripled year on year; where to go data showed that as of August 27, the number of early reservations for hotels in popular cities increased by nearly 40% year on year, and the number of travelers requesting a 3-day break increased 52% year over year on September 28-30, accounting for 15% of the total number of 13 days; Meituan data shows that as of September 16, holiday ticket bookings increased 44% year over year. According to Ctrip's “2026 Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day Travel Forecast Report”, about 1 in 10 visitors chose to take two consecutive holidays. Nearly half of them traveled for more than 8 days, and the proportion of cross-provincial trips during the National Day reached 82%.
Caliber analysis: The total volume is expected to reach a new high, and the average daily caliber is expected to grow moderately.
Regarding booking data, the bank believes there are three points to pay attention to:
1) The growth rate subsided as the holiday season approached. Under the vertical and horizontal dimensions of air travel, the year-on-year growth rate of domestic/inbound ticket bookings from September 25 to October 7 was about 7%/11% on August 11, up to about 17%/11% on August 31, and 10%/5% by September 14, respectively, down markedly from the end of August. The increase in the previous period or the contribution of a certain shift in the reservation window was included.
2) The forecasting of capacity and passenger flow is moderate. Flight managers expect the passenger traffic volume of civil aviation to be about 31.02 million from September 25 to October 7, an average daily increase of 3.1% (domestic +3.1%, international +2.9%), and about 219,000 passenger flights, an average daily increase of 2.0%.
3) The bank expects that when compared on a daily average basis, the number of domestic hotel nights and GMV in Shuangqu may increase by a lower number of units, and that the number of domestic air tickets will increase by a year-on-year or lower number of units. Referring to the holiday performance during the year (Qingming/May Day/Dragon Boat Festival domestic travelers +6.8%/+4.4%, total expenditure +6.6%/+2.9%/+4.0%), and a total of 872 million travelers in the same period in 2024 (107 million during the Mid-Autumn Festival and 765 million on National Day), and 888 million people in the 8 days of the National Day Mid-Autumn Festival in 2025, the bank expects the total number of domestic travelers to continue to reach new highs this year, but the average daily increase is likely to continue to reach new highs.
Demand structure: Long-term travel and sinking destinations are popular, outbound performance is steady, and entry continues to increase.
On the domestic side, the bank determined that longer vacations would drive demand for some surrounding tours to long-term tours, long-term tours and outbound travel, and fuel surcharges for domestic routes (taking the 800-kilometer flight segment as an example) have dropped from a high of 170 yuan in May to 70 yuan from August 5. The suppression of air travel was significantly reduced compared to the May 1st holiday: air travel longitudinal and horizontal data showed that the number of reservations for domestic routes over 2,000 kilometers was more than 1.74 million, up about 14% year on year, faster than the whole; Meituan data showed that the number of long flight routes with a flight distance of more than 2,000 kilometers compared to the previous year was booked. 76% increase; same travel data It shows that the popularity of domestic long-haul air ticket reservations of 1,200 kilometers or more increased by 34% year-on-year, the proportion of long-stay orders over 5 days increased by about 7 percentage points, and the share of high-quality hotel reservations increased by nearly 10 percentage points. Xinjiang, Tibet, Gansu, Yunnan and Hainan ranked among the top long-term destinations. The decline in the county area continued. The popularity of hotel reservations in popular counties increased 32% year over year, and the popularity of travel product reservations in Tongcheng County increased by 42% year over year.
In terms of departure, the trip determined that in addition to traditional popular destinations in East Asia and Southeast Asia, the direction of Australia and New Zealand also clearly benefited. Due to the geographical situation and high oil prices during the year, data from various ultra-long-term platforms such as Europe and the US is somewhat fragmented. In terms of entry, data from the National Administration of Immigration shows 61.287 million foreigners entering and leaving from January to August this year, up 19.5% year on year, and 23.72 million visa-free entries, up 26.8% year on year; Ctrip data shows that inbound travel orders during the double season maintained double digit growth. Russian visitors increased 173% year on year, and the UK, Malaysia, and Canada all grew by more than 50%, which is expected to remain a structural highlight.
Post-holiday outlook: Autumn vacation is expected to increase, and off-season performance remains to be seen.
During the fall vacation in 2025, the number of tourist hotel and air ticket reservations in Zhejiang increased 68% and 22%, respectively; ticket reservations for scenic spots in Sichuan Province increased 3.4 times year on year, with family visitors accounting for more than 53%. Autumn vacation will be further expanded in 2026. Currently, it has been officially announced that many cities include Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Hunan, and Inner Mongolia. Most regions schedule 2-3 days and form a 5-day long holiday with consecutive weekend breaks. The period is concentrated in mid-late November. The trip expects demand for fall vacation to be mainly in the form of families and children, surrounding areas, and the short to medium term. It is expected that there will be many small peaks at that time, which will support the off-season. Overall, however, business travel accounted for a relatively high share in the fourth quarter. Currently, it is difficult to say that there has been a clear recovery, and hotels and OTA companies are facing a high base and pressure from changes at the management level, so the outlook for subsequent operations may still be cautious.
Risk factors: The recovery in macroeconomic consumption fell short of expectations; unit prices for wine travelers continued to decline; extreme weather such as typhoons and heavy rainfall disrupted holiday travel; fuel prices and geopolitical factors affected cross-border travel demand; the impact of platform rectification on the monetization rate and market share of the lodging business was higher than expected; industry subsidies and marketing competition intensified.
investment strategy
The total number of trips in Shuangjie is expected to continue to reach new highs, but the average daily increase in caliber is likely to be relatively moderate. Follow-up attention:
1) Hotels: Summer business performance was relatively pressured by factors such as weather and fuel prices. Industry operations have improved month-on-month since late July. According to hotel house data, QTD RevPAR for the third quarter was +0.7% year-on-year, with relatively moderate performance.
2) OTA: While industry regulation is still ongoing.
3) Scenic area: The sector's valuation has fallen back to a reasonable range.