Komo: The cancellation of defensive positions may be a catalyst for growth, Bitcoin has more “momentum” than gold

The Zhitong Finance App learned that J.P. Morgan said that if investors start canceling defensive positions established against Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), Bitcoin may receive more support than gold. As of press time, Bitcoin has risen 1.63% in the past 24 hours, close to $82,000.

A team led by J.P. Morgan analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said in a report last Wednesday that Bitcoin investors are still more hedged than gold investors, which means that if this cautious sentiment subsides, Bitcoin will have more room to receive disproportionate financial support.

This judgment was made against a backdrop of challenges in both the macroeconomic and regulatory environment. On September 15, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY Act for short) did not reach the required 60-vote threshold, and the bill failed to advance in the US Senate.

A day later, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve voted unanimously to raise the federal funds rate range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4%. This is the first time since 2023 that the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates on the grounds that the level of inflation is still high. Higher interest rates and higher inflation-adjusted US Treasury yields may put pressure on assets such as Bitcoin and gold.

Why does J.P. Morgan think Bitcoin still has more room? The bank pointed out that gold ETFs have recovered all capital outflows from early 2026, while Bitcoin ETFs have now recovered only about half of the outflows. Futures market holdings are still at a high level among the two types of assets, which indicates that institutional investors are continuing to increase their exposure to the issue.

The bigger difference between the two is the hedging situation. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) short positions are still close to the highest level this year, while short positions in the SPDR Gold Shares ETF are below its historical average. IBIT also has a higher ratio of open positions for put options and call options. J.P. Morgan analysts said, “This comparison shows that compared to gold, Bitcoin is still facing an overall more questionable position environment.”

Meanwhile, recent ETF capital flows show that market sentiment still fluctuates sharply. The US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net outflow of US$450.4 million on September 15, with a further net outflow of US$295.9 million on September 16. It was then reversed to a net inflow of $159.5 million on September 17. IBIT alone attracted $183.7 million in capital inflows on the same day; other funds experienced outflows, offsetting part of IBIT's inflows, including an outflow of about $16.6 million from Fidelity's FBTC and an outflow of about $7.6 million from VanEck's HODL. J.P. Morgan said that if investors start reducing these defensive positions, the current higher degree of hedging may eventually turn into a favorable factor for Bitcoin.

US regulators are sending positive signals in the crypto market one after another

It is worth mentioning that in addition to the re-inflow of Bitcoin ETF funds, Bitcoin returned to the $80,000 mark last Friday after the US regulatory authorities sent positive signals in the crypto market one after another, and the market gradually digested previous weaknesses such as the setback in crypto legislation and the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike.

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced the launch of the “Innovation Exemption” (Innovation Exemption) on September 7, EST, which grants temporary and conditional exemptions to eligible tokenized securities trading platforms, enabling them to trade tokenized versions of some US listed stocks on the chain. According to the SEC, the measure is aimed at promoting the development of the US capital market towards on-chain transactions.

According to the rules published by the SEC, approved Tokenized Securities Offerings (TSV) can use licensed automated market makers and liquidity pools to trade tokenized US stocks, but must meet a range of conditions, including restrictions on trading types and trading volume, and giving relevant issuers the opportunity to file objections.

At the same time, tokenized stocks must give holders the same rights as traditional securities, including receiving dividends and exercising voting rights; synthetic stock tokens without these rights are not covered by this exemption. The exemption is currently a temporary measure and is valid for five years.

SEC Chairman Paul Atkins said that this measure is a step in pushing the capital market into the “digital age” based on existing legal powers after the advance of cryptocurrency legislation in Congress was blocked. This is also seen by the market as a positive regulatory signal for the cryptocurrency industry. The commentator believes that the SEC's action has provided a regulatory path for some platforms to tokenize US securities transactions, and the stock prices of related companies such as Coinbase have further strengthened as a result.

The SEC's action was not an isolated incident. Also last Thursday, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced a new “no action” (no-action) stance against passive software providers. Where specific conditions are met, CFTC staff will not recommend that the Commission take enforcement action because these software providers are not registered as introducing brokers (IB). The relevant arrangements apply to software that helps users trade with registered futures commissioners, referral brokers, and designated contract markets.

According to CFTC documents, this arrangement corresponds to Staff Letter 26-25 issued on September 17, which means that the previous regulatory exemptions for individual companies were further extended to eligible passive software providers.

Some analysts believe that the landmark “CLARITY Act” failed to advance in the US Senate last Tuesday. Since then, the SEC and CFTC are using their existing powers to advance the regulatory framework and temporarily fill some regulatory gaps in place of congressional legislation.

According to some market opinions, the blocking of the “CLARITY Act” in the Senate did not completely change investors' expectations about the direction of US crypto regulation, because the SEC and CFTC can still advance rule-making through their respective regulatory powers. Therefore, what the market is currently trading is not that “crypto regulatory legislation has been implemented,” but regulators are still gradually establishing new regulatory channels for the digital asset industry through administrative and rule-level methods.

However, whether this round of cryptocurrency rebound can continue is still being tested by the macroeconomic policy environment. Alice Liu, head of research at CoinMarketCap, said that despite recent interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, the total market value of the cryptocurrency market is still growing, which indicates that the market may have partially digested the relevant policy changes before. She believes that what is worth paying more attention to now is how rising financing costs will affect the market position layout.

Furthermore, the SEC's “Innovation Exemption” is still a temporary and conditional regulatory arrangement, and the CFTC's measures are also subject to specific conditions. Meanwhile, comprehensive legislation on the structure of the cryptocurrency market remains unfinished. As a result, the rise in cryptocurrency last Friday more accurately reflects the market's repricing of phased improvements in the regulatory environment rather than the complete implementation of the US cryptocurrency regulatory system.