BTC breaks a record of 80,000, but CoinShares warns the end of the year will be severe

According to Woofun AI, the Bitcoin (BTC) price strongly broke through the $80,000 integer mark on Friday. However, CoinShares immediately issued a warning that the market situation would become “very serious” at the end of the year, and that the price spike clearly deviated from the macro warning.

CoinShares research director James Butterfill analyzed in a report released on Friday that two major factors are putting pressure on Bitcoin's year-end performance. Notably, this shock is significantly divided: thanks to a more clear regulatory framework, the price of Bitcoin is relatively stable; in contrast, Ethereum (ETH) and altcoins are riskier because a large amount of stablecoin payment infrastructure relies on these networks.

Woofun AI collated data and showed that this structural difference makes different asset classes very different in their sensitivity to macro variables.

Grayscale Research Director Zack Pandel held a different view on Thursday. He viewed the current interest rate hike as a cyclical adjustment rather than a policy shift, and compared the case where the NASDAQ continued to be bullish even after Greenspan raised interest rates in 1997. Pandel expects one or two more rate hikes in 2026, but the impact on digital asset allocation is limited.

The more critical variable is that stablecoin issuers such as Circle (CRCL.US) and Tether (USDT) can instead profit from US Treasury accounts and money market reserves, highlighting the asymmetry in the impact of interest rate policies.

Technically, Bitcoin broke through the descending triangle pattern on Friday, hitting a maximum of $80,804, breaking the downtrend line and crossing the exponential moving average group in one fell swoop. After weeks of weakness, the MACD indicator turned bullish and returned to the signal line. Currently, the 20-day exponential moving average has fallen back to $77,217, reconstructing key support levels, and short-term bullish momentum has increased significantly.