Komo: Tesla (TSLA.US) Robotaxi's revenue in 2035 may reach US$320 billion, nearly 98% from its own fleet

J.P. Morgan analyst Rajat Gupta released a research report last week. By 2035, Tesla Robotaxi's revenue is estimated to be about US$320 billion, of which nearly US$314 billion comes from Tesla's own and operated fleet, not the “Tesla Network” owned by the car owner. This framework actually eliminated a long-standing selling point: individual car owners connect their vehicles to shared travel networks to earn passive income. For Tesla (TSLA.US) long-term shareholders, the report redefines the Robotaxi opportunity as a capital-intensive mobility operator business rather than an asset-light software platform, closer to an expanded version of Waymo.

According to relevant model estimates, by 2035, the vehicle owner network will contribute only about 5 billion US dollars, while the company's own vehicles will contribute about 314 billion US dollars. According to this estimate, Tesla keeps almost all of its ride-hailing revenue and no longer shares it with car owners, thereby increasing revenue capture rate, but also boosting capital intensity. This optimistic expectation depends on Cybercab's rapid mass production, falling operating costs, and widespread approval for unsupervised autonomous driving.

Tesla management strengthened the vertically integrated narrative during the 2026 second quarter earnings call. CEO Musk said, “We expect Robotaxi to achieve vertical integration like other businesses,” adding that “demand will exceed our service capabilities.” The company reported revenue for the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 of US$28.24 billion, up 25.5% year over year; non-GAAP earnings per share were $0.33, lower than the general market forecast of US$0.54. The Robotaxi service currently covers seven metropolitan areas in the US, and the number of active FSD subscriptions is 1.48 million, an increase of 56% over the previous year. Cybercab is already in production at the Texas Gigafactory, and Chief Financial Officer Vaibhav Taneja is directing capital expenditure of over $25 billion in 2026 to support fleet expansion.

J.P. Morgan's revised opinion raised the long-term cap on Tesla shares, but it also raised the execution threshold. If Cybercab's production climbs smoothly and the scope of approval for unsupervised autonomous driving is expanded, revenue capture for its own fleet will be transformative in the 2025 fiscal year of $94.83 billion. If production or regulation progress falls short of expectations, the $320 billion figure will be significantly reduced. From a research perspective, Robotaxi's contribution is more like a scenario assumption than a recorded project; compared to the 2035 vision, the recent profit margin and cash flow reality are still more measurable signs.