On Holding (ONON) After The FP Movement Drop, Is The Valuation Case Still Intact?
On Holding (ONON) is back in the headlines after unveiling a second FP Movement collaboration, a limited-edition women’s footwear collection that combines performance features with expressive design for running, training, and everyday wear.
Recent trading tells a different story to the product buzz. On Holding’s share price has slipped over the past quarter, with a 30 day share price return down 14.93% and a 90 day move down 29.15%, contributing to a year to date share price decline of 41.62% and a 1 year total shareholder return down 36.09%. This signals fading momentum even as partnerships like the FP Movement tie up aim to refresh the growth narrative.
Scan beyond On Holding and this FP Movement drop by reviewing curated 15 high quality undiscovered gems that could be setting up their own next phase in performance apparel and footwear.
On Holding shares have retreated hard while analyst targets and intrinsic value estimates still sit well above the current US$27.41 price. Is this the moment to lean into the drop, or would it be better to wait for an even cheaper setup before running the numbers?
Most Popular Narrative: 47.8% Undervalued
On Holding’s most followed valuation storyline pegs fair value at $52.49, nearly double the recent $27.41 share price and sharply at odds with the slide.
The acceleration in DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) and e-commerce channels, with DTC reaching new highs (41.1% of sales in Q2 and up 54% YoY), gives On more control over brand, pricing, and customer data while increasing gross and EBITDA margins, an operational catalyst likely to further expand profitability as DTC continues its mix shift.
Want to see what kind of revenue runway, margin uplift, and future earnings multiple are built into that almost two times gap? The full narrative lays out the exact growth path and profitability profile needed to justify that $52.49 mark.
Result: Fair Value of $52.49 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
Still, the On Holding story can break if premium pricing starts to bite with consumers or if heavy expansion spending fails to translate into the expected lift in profitability.
Find out about the key risks to this On Holding narrative.
Another View: On Holding Through A P/E Lens
The story looks less clear cut once valuation for On Holding is viewed through its P/E ratio rather than fair value models. The shares trade on 18.9x earnings, above the US Luxury industry on 15.5x and peers on 14x, while still below an estimated fair ratio of 22.3x. That mix of premium to sector but discount to the fair ratio points to a live debate. Is this pricing a cushion or a warning sign if sentiment sours again?
For a closer breakdown of what that earnings multiple implies for risk and opportunity, including how it links back to earnings quality and growth expectations, See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
Next Steps
Views on On Holding may be split after this. Check the full data set, pressure test the assumptions, and then weigh the 3 key rewards.
Ready For More Investment Ideas Beyond On Holding?
On Holding might be on your radar right now, but your next strong idea could come from a completely different corner of the market.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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