Is ING Groep (ENXTAM:INGA) Fully Valued After Fresh Earnings Upgrades?
Recent upward revisions to earnings estimates for ING Groep (ENXTAM:INGA), with no downward changes reported, have drawn attention to the stock’s momentum profile and improving sentiment among research firms.
ING Groep’s share price has climbed strongly over the year, with a 90-day share price return of 23.61% and a year to date gain of 31.06%. Total shareholder return over five years of 304.86% highlights how long term holders have been rewarded as sentiment improves around the latest earnings revisions.
Spot momentum stories like ING Groep earlier by scanning our hand picked list of 183 high quality undervalued stocks, which pairs stronger sentiment with solid fundamentals.ING Groep’s sharp move and upbeat earnings revisions could signal a stronger underlying franchise, or simply a wave of optimism. The valuation numbers now need to show which story fits.
Most Popular Narrative: 20% Overvalued
ING Groep last closed at €32.09, while the most followed narrative from August 2025 set a fair value closer to €32.03, framing the current move as slightly ahead of that prior estimate.
ING Groep certainly has been having the better of my fair valuation back in August of last year, with shares of the Dutch bank rising some 3 Euros or more than 10 per cent up and above the fair price I had calculated back then. By the same token, that definitely renders it priced to perfection now. The war on the Persian Gulf has been developing into a stand-off without an end in sight, elevating energy prices into the foreseeable future; the low-hanging fruit in the banking business on the continent have been harvested; and multiples at the very least and for these reasons will not expand any further from here.
Curious what sits behind that near line ball fair value for ING Groep. The narrative leans heavily on profit margins, measured revenue growth and a future earnings multiple that assumes a mature, fee rich banking model. Want to see how those building blocks are stitched together into a single fair price.
Result: Fair Value of €32.03 (ABOUT RIGHT)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
Still, ING Groep’s fee ambitions and infrastructure lending tilt could be knocked off course by weaker European project pipelines or a sharper reset in bank risk pricing.
Find out about the key risks to this ING Groep narrative.
Another View on ING Groep’s Value
Multiples paint ING Groep as only slightly expensive, with a 10.5x P/E versus 10.3x for peers and a fair ratio of 11.6x that the market could move toward. Yet Simply Wall St’s DCF model points to a future cash flow value of €60.75, which implies the stock is trading at a steep discount. Which yardstick do you trust when both are built on different stories about the future of its earnings power?
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
Next Steps
Mixed about the tone of this ING Groep story. Move quickly, test the upside and downside in the numbers, and weigh both using the 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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