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    SoftBank Group (TSE:9984) Dropped, So What Is Behind The Latest Attention?

    Simply Wall St·09/12/2026 11:20:48
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    SB Energy’s planned IPO, backed by SoftBank Group (TSE:9984), puts a fresh spotlight on the conglomerate’s AI computing ambitions. The listing depends on future data-center projects, long-dated contracts, and execution on large infrastructure buildouts.

    The SoftBank Group share price has pulled back 4% over the past day to ¥6,540. That follows a sharp 17% 7 day share price return and an 18% 30 day move, with a 1 year total shareholder return of 44% and a 5 year total shareholder return above 300%. This signals strong long term momentum even as traders reassess near term risk around big AI and data center bets such as SB Energy’s planned IPO.

    Scan beyond SoftBank Group’s AI buildout and explore other infrastructure opportunities with the curated list of 89 AI infrastructure stocks.

    Bulls point to SoftBank Group’s AI push and strong multi year share gains. Bears flag execution risk and a stretched run up. Which side does the current valuation support as SB Energy moves toward its IPO?

    Most Popular Narrative: 18% Undervalued

    SoftBank Group’s most followed narrative pegs fair value at ¥7,954 versus the latest close at ¥6,540, framing SB Energy’s IPO as one piece of a bigger AI bet.

    The prevailing narrative centers on AI adoption as an unstoppable growth engine across industries, but high valuations now may ignore the risk that normalization of interest rates and tighter funding could compress multiples for high-growth, capital-intensive private tech ventures. This could lead to lower Vision Fund investment returns and potential write-downs, reducing net margins and earnings stability.

    Read the complete narrative. Read the complete narrative.

    Want to see what underpins that valuation gap? The narrative leans heavily on future revenue expansion, slimmer margins, and a much richer earnings multiple. Curious how those pieces fit together into a single fair value number.

    Result: Fair Value of ¥7,954 (UNDERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    Still, SoftBank Group’s AI heavy portfolio and high leverage mean that tighter regulation or weaker tech funding could quickly challenge the current undervaluation story.

    Find out about the key risks to this SoftBank Group narrative.

    Another View: SoftBank Group Through A Cash Flow Lens

    The narrative-led fair value for SoftBank Group paints one picture. The SWS DCF model tells a very different story, with an estimate of future cash flow value at ¥2,404.11 against the current price of ¥6,540. On that basis, the shares screen as expensive rather than undervalued. Which framework do you trust more when AI plans rest on heavy investment and leverage?

    Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

    9984 Discounted Cash Flow as at Sep 2026
    9984 Discounted Cash Flow as at Sep 2026

    Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out SoftBank Group for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 16 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

    Next Steps

    Mixed signals around SoftBank Group and SB Energy can be exciting or unsettling, so consider reviewing the full breakdown of 4 key rewards and 4 important warning signs while the facts are fresh and you can pressure test the story yourself.

    Looking for more SoftBank Group style investment ideas?

    If you only focus on SoftBank Group today, you could miss other opportunities setting up right now, so use the screener to widen your field of vision.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.