Cui Dongshu: Retail sales of 1,541 million vehicles in the national passenger car market fell 23.6% year-on-year in August
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the Passenger Transport Federation, published an article stating that in August 2026, the national passenger car market retailed 1,541 million vehicles, down 23.6% year on year and up 5.5% month on month; since this year, 11.716 million vehicles have been sold, down 20.7% year on year. In August, the domestic passenger car market showed an operating trend of “weak total repair, month-on-month strengthening, and extreme structural differentiation”. The late stage of the off-season was “building strength”, and the structural adjustment of the industry was further deepening. The Chuanglian Forecast Team's forecast index for July was 19%, the July satisfaction rate assessed in mid-August was 17%, and our August forecast index was 12%, which is at the bottom of history. Satisfaction with the mid-September release is expected to improve.
1. Passenger car retail trends in the narrow sense of the word in recent years
In August, the national passenger car market retailed 1.54 million vehicles. The year-on-year growth performance was weak, leaving the normal growth line. The reasons for the continued negative growth in August were diverse. The first was the impact of high oil prices, and the second was the strong regulatory nature of the new trade-in policy and the reduction in passenger car subsidies. Coupled with the sharp impact of upstream price increases, the underlying reason was low consumption capacity and willingness.
In August 2026, the national passenger car market retailed 1,541 thousand vehicles, down 23.6% year on year and up 5.5% month on month; since this year, 11.716 million vehicles have been sold, down 20.7% year on year. In August 2026, the domestic passenger car market showed a trend of continuous total pressure, month-on-month weakening, and extreme structural differentiation. The downturn in the off-season was highlighted, and the structural adjustment of the industry was further deepened.
2. Passenger car wholesale trends in the narrow sense of the word in recent years
Passenger car manufacturers across the country wholesale 2.35 million vehicles in August, a significant decline over the same period. The trend in August of previous years was relatively strong. This year, the domestic economy was sluggish but exports grew at a high rate, so the overall return was stable. Due to strong exports, few domestic wholesalers, and good inventory removal results, channel pressure has improved markedly.
In August, passenger car manufacturers across the country sold 2.353 million vehicles, down 5.3% year on year and up 4.5% month on month; encouraged by the surge in exports, the year-on-year growth rate of passenger car wholesale in August was 18.3 percentage points higher than the retail growth rate.
3. Passenger car production trends in the narrow sense of the word in recent years
Passenger car production declined sharply in the first half of the year. August was still lackluster, and early market demand continued to be weak. As a result, production in August was relatively low, and the year-on-year trend declined significantly.
Passenger car production in August was 2.35 million units, down 4% year on year and up 5.4% month on month. The downward pressure in September was even greater.
4. Passenger car export trends in the narrow sense of the word in recent years
Exports declined in August, the rapid month-on-month upward trend changed, and the market gradually entered a stable period.
In August, passenger car exports (including complete vehicles and CKD) were 888,000 units, up 77.8% year on year, down 4.2% month on month, accounting for 38% of passenger car manufacturer sales (41% last month, 20% in the same period in 2025). In August, new energy vehicles accounted for 58.4% of total exports, a sharp increase of 18 percentage points over the same period.
5. Characteristics of monthly changes in production and sales inventory
Due to the extremely cautious production schedule of manufacturers in August, the manufacturer's wholesale production was higher than the production of 50,000 units, while the manufacturer's monthly domestic wholesale was lower than the domestic retail price of 76,000 units. The characteristics of inventory removal are prominent this year. The overall inventory of the passenger car industry fell by 710,000 units in January-August (300,000 units in the same period in 2025, 760,000 units in the same period in 2024, and 200,000 units in the same period in 2023).
6. Passenger car promotion trends in the narrow sense
A. Promotion of new energy vehicles increased slightly
The promotion of new energy vehicles in August 2026 fell to a medium to low level of 8.6%, down 0.9% from the same period, and 0.1% higher than the previous month. Promotions have shrunk quite a bit in recent months. With the increase in the number of new cars at low prices, promotions for new car switching have declined sharply. The promotion system was temporarily withdrawn in August. Currently, it has basically maintained a medium to high level of normal promotion.
B. The trend of fuel vehicle promotion is gradually declining
In August 2026, sales of traditional fuel vehicles remained at the level of 23.6%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month and an increase of 0.7 percentage points over the same period. Sales of fuel vehicles remained around 23% for more than 1 year.
The promotion of traditional fuel vehicles began to increase slightly in September 2025, and the magnitude was moderate. In 2026, due to strong price cuts, promotions gradually declined.
C. The trend of luxury car promotion has declined sharply
In August 2026, luxury car promotions gradually reached a medium to high level of 26.9%, up 0.2 points from the previous month, and down 0.4 percentage points from the same period. Although consumption upgrades have driven strong high-end demand, luxury car promotions have increased since August 2025, and guide prices for new cars have been drastically reduced since the beginning of 2026. Promotions have declined as a result, and actual transaction prices have not changed much.
D. Mainstream joint venture vehicle promotion trend is stable
In August 2026, the joint venture fuel vehicle promotion gradually reached a medium to high level of 23.4%, down 0.3 points from the previous month and 1.4 percentage points higher than the same period. Joint venture promotions have recently increased slightly.
The promotion of joint venture fuel vehicles rebounded from a low of 13% in 2023 to a peak of 23.3% in September 2025, and fluctuated slightly over the past three months with strong price cuts for new vehicles. Since the price of new cars is particularly low, the overall promotion intensity has increased relatively steadily and slightly.
E. The promotion trend of autonomous fuel vehicles remains stable
Due to strong autonomous new energy sources and good fuel vehicle exports, the promotion of autonomous fuel vehicles was generally stable in 2025.
In August 2026, the promotion of autonomous fuel vehicles gradually reached a high level of 19%, an increase of 0.6 points over the same period. Autonomous car companies' promotions increased rapidly in the first half of 2024-2025, and since then, promotions have generally stabilized since the second half of 2025.
F. Dynamic promotion intensity tracking is relatively gentle
Due to the return of the guide price due to price cuts for some brands, the promotion margin was reduced. Price cuts for conventional fuel vehicles and hybrids in 2026 were strong, sales were poor due to high fuel prices, and promotions continued to increase.
New energy vehicle promotions have improved markedly, mixed and extended promotions have improved markedly, and reduced promotions for new products have improved market performance. Due to the switch to the main model, the promotion for pure electric models dropped by about 1.3 points from August 2025, and decreased by about 0.4% from the previous month.
Auto market promotions were relatively stable in August, and dealers also promoted steadily to ensure profits. Currently, European and Korean promotions are big. Other joint venture car companies basically promote about 22%, which is not much different. Autonomous car companies became the least promoted.
7. Growth characteristics of passenger cars in the narrow sense of the word by class
Passenger car retail sales fell 23% and wholesale fell 5% in August 2026. The retail growth rate was much weaker than the wholesale growth rate, forming a pattern of internal cooling and external heat.
Entry-level consumption has been hit hard. Due to the impact of high fuel prices and the suspension of subsidies, retail sales of A-class cars and A00-class cars were both lower in August. A0 class cars and high-end models became the main retail force in August. The high-end performance of SUVs was strong, and sales of mainly A0 class cars rebounded.
8. Growth characteristics of passenger cars by country in the narrow sense
In August, independent brands sold 1.08 million vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 19% and a year-on-month increase of 4%. The domestic retail share of independent brands in the same month was 69.9%, an increase of 4.1 percentage points over the previous year. Overall, the performance of independent brands in the new energy market and export market is relatively stable.
In August, mainstream joint venture brands retailed 310,000 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 35% and a month-on-month increase of 5%. In August, the retail share of German brands was 12.5%, down 2.1 percentage points from the previous year; the retail share of Japanese brands was 10.9%, down 1.4 percentage points from the previous year; the retail share of the American brand market was 5.6%, down 0.04 percentage points from the previous year. Low-volume joint ventures are gradually recovering their vitality.
9. 2026 Brand Production and Sales Characteristics
The original brand value system has changed, and the pressure on luxury brands has continued to increase recently. The production and sales trend pressure of joint ventures continues to be strong, and the advantages of the independent brand industry chain are obvious.
Demand differentiation pressure was strong in August, and the fuel vehicle market trend was poor month-on-month, leading to a deterioration in joint venture brand trends. Independence from new energy sources and exports performed relatively well.
10. National New Energy Permeability Rate - Wholesale
In August, the wholesale penetration rate of NEV manufacturers was 64.2%, up 12 percentage points from August 2025. The penetration rate has continued to be at an all-time high in recent months.
In August, the penetration rate of own-brand new energy vehicles was 74.3%; the penetration rate of new energy vehicles among luxury cars was 53.1%; and the penetration rate of mainstream joint venture brand NEVs rose to 15.7%.
In August, wholesale sales of traditional car manufacturers fell 29% year on year, while new energy vehicles increased 17% year on year. The growth rate gap was nearly 50 percentage points. The fuel vehicle market continued to be sluggish, and new energy exports contributed greatly.
11. National New Energy Penetration Rate - Retail
In August, the overall retail sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China was 65.2%, an increase of 9.9 percentage points over the same period last year, and an increase of 0.1 percentage points over the same period last year.
In domestic retail sales in August, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles among independent brands was 83.9%; the penetration rate of new energy vehicles among luxury cars was 38.9%; while the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in mainstream joint venture brands only rose to 13.4%.