Why Amgen Stock Is Down 8.7% And What's Next After Lp(a) Drug Doubts
- Amgen and AstraZeneca reported positive Phase 3 data for TEZSPIRE in eosinophilic esophagitis, and Amgen separately released strong survival results for IMDELLTRA in small cell lung cancer, while investors reassessed the outlook for its Lp(a) drug olpasiran after Novartis’ pelacarsen setback.
- The same period highlighted a split in Amgen’s pipeline reality, with encouraging late stage readouts in immunology and oncology set against questions about the commercial potential of Lp(a)-lowering therapies and future loss-of-exclusivity pressure on existing products.
- Now it is worth asking how class-wide doubts around Lp(a) drugs and Amgen’s data wins in other areas reshape the broader investment narrative.
Amgen Investment Narrative Recap
Owning Amgen today means believing the large marketed portfolio and late stage drugs can offset patent losses, pricing pressure and a high debt load over time. The near term story rests heavily on execution in oncology and immunology while biosimilar competition and drug price reforms work in the background. Recent TEZSPIRE and IMDELLTRA wins help the operating picture but do not fully resolve concerns around loss of exclusivity or the cost of keeping R&D high. The biggest swing factor in the next couple of years still sits in how well key franchises hold up as competition tightens.
The TEZSPIRE CROSSING readout in eosinophilic esophagitis looks most relevant here. It speaks directly to Amgen’s effort to deepen its presence in chronic inflammatory disease where unmet need is high and pricing pressure can be intense. If regulators accept the data, TEZSPIRE’s potential label expansion could partially counter future biosimilar erosion in older products and support the thesis that Amgen’s pipeline can replenish revenue. It also underlines execution risk, since every additional indication brings manufacturing, safety monitoring and commercialization complexity that has to be managed cleanly to justify sustained investment.
Yet there is still one structural issue around Amgen that could matter far more than these trial headlines if ...
Read the full Amgen narrative to see the case behind these numbers.
Amgen's narrative projects US$41.5b revenue and US$10.3b earnings by 2029. This implies 2.9% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of about US$1.6b from US$8.7b today.
Amgen's forecasts flag a $371.93 fair value against the $437.23 share price, indicating a 15% downside to its current price that leaves little room for error.
Exploring Other Perspectives
One alternate view fixates on pricing reform risk rather than TEZSPIRE upside. The most bearish Amgen analysts were pencilling in flat earnings of about US$8.7b and revenue of roughly US$38.9b by 2029, with a US$271.69 fair value. That is far more cautious than consensus, and TEZSPIRE’s EoE data may eventually shift those expectations.
If you want to see how other investors are framing Amgen’s value, compare the 4 other fair value estimates for Amgen with your own assumptions.
The Verdict Is Yours
Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.
- A great starting point for your Amgen research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
- See our latest analysis for Amgen. The report includes a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual, the Snowflake, making it easy to evaluate Amgen's overall financial health at a glance.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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