CINNO Research: The decline in global LCD TV panels narrowed in September or showed a steady trend after weakening in the fourth quarter

The Zhitong Finance App learned that CINNO Research published an article stating that in September of this year, global LCD TV panels are expected to decline slightly, the decline narrows slightly, and the structural differentiation in size is remarkable. Demand picked up in the short term, driven by the brand's year-end performance impetus and large sales promotion; the supply-side high generation line utilization rate remained high, and the scale of shipments grew steadily in the third quarter. There has been no substantial reversal in the current pattern of easing supply and demand, and short-term prices are still under downward pressure; upstream raw material costs are pressured by lower board factories to stabilize prices at the beginning of the fourth quarter or downgrade, and the overall price is expected to weaken first and then stabilize.

Looking at the demand side, in September of this year, global demand for LCD TV panels picked up in the short term. On the one hand, brand manufacturers stepped up their preparation efforts around annual performance impulse targets, and on the other hand, the price-for-volume strategy continued to pay off, and purchasing intentions gradually became positive. Specifically, the trend of panel prices this month is expected to be basically the same as in August. The overall trend may continue to decline, but the price decline for some size panels may narrow. It is expected that the price of 32” mainstream panels will stop falling first. The price price of 43” to 75” panels will benefit from the concentrated release of demand, the pace of brand procurement has accelerated, and the price decline has narrowed month-on-month; the remaining oversized panels may fall short of expectations. The pressure on supply and demand has not been relieved, and the price decline has basically remained at the level of the previous month.

From the supply side, according to CINNO Research data, the average operating rate of the global LCD TV panel high-end line remained at 86% in August of this year, and the overall supply of the industry was at a high level. Entering September, on the one hand, brand customers continued to prepare goods for terminal promotions in the fourth quarter, supporting panel factories' production schedules to remain high; on the other hand, the rise in upstream raw material prices boosted panel manufacturing costs, and panel factories' demand for price stabilization increased under pressure. The market generally expects panel manufacturers to adjust supply through lower operating rates in October to support panel prices. Therefore, the operating rate of the high-generation line is expected to remain above 85% this month. There are no clear signs of contraction on the supply side.

LCD TV panel shipments are expected to increase by about 5% year-on-year and 2% month-on-month in the third quarter of this year. Although short-term demand is picking up, there has been no substantial reversal in the loose supply and demand pattern in the industry. Against the backdrop of continued release of supply-side pressure, panel prices have not yet formed stable fundamental support, and there is still room for short-term prices to decline.

According to the latest statistics from CINNO Research, global LCD TV panel prices may have declined slightly in September 2026, but the month-on-month decline narrowed markedly, and the structural differentiation in size continued.

Specifically, it is expected that the price of 32” mainstream panels will stop falling to 32 US dollars, and the price of 43” to 55” panels will fall by 1 dollar from August, corresponding prices will be 61 US dollars, 85 US dollars, and 111 US dollars, respectively; 65” to 85” panels will fall by 2 dollars, corresponding to 163 US dollars, 216 US dollars, and 286 US dollars; and 98” /100” oversized panels will fall by 5 US dollars to 410 US dollars month-on-month. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, global year-end promotions are expected to drive the phased preparation of brands, but the recovery in terminal consumption is weak, and the loose supply and demand pattern in the industry is difficult to fundamentally improve. Panel manufacturers may reduce operating rates and phased production cuts to support prices; it is expected that the overall price of LCD TV panels may weaken and then stabilize. Substantial stabilization will depend on the pace of brand replenishment and terminal retail delivery.