NuScale Power (SMR) Could Be 90% Undervalued On AI And Safety Pellet Progress
NuScale Power (SMR) just hit two technical milestones that go straight to the heart of its commercialization story. Nuclear specific AI tools and new boron oxide safety pellets are now moving from concept into real hardware.
Despite the technical progress, NuScale Power’s share price has been volatile, with a 7 day share price return of 5.32% and a 90 day share price return of 4.41%, set against a year to date share price decline of 40.53% and a 1 year total shareholder return fall of 72.55%.
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NuScale Power now sits at an awkward crossroads, where real engineering milestones clash with a share price that has fallen sharply over the past year. Is this move about business traction or investor sentiment resetting the story, and how does the current valuation frame that gap?
Most Popular Narrative: 90.3% Undervalued
NuScale Power last closed at $9.70, while the most followed narrative on the stock assigns a fair value of $100. That gap frames a very aggressive upside story before investors even get to the engineering detail.
Its my fudemental belief that retail has strayed from real long-term value, and towards a perverse sentiment rooted purely in numbers. The market looked at NuScale's 2023 project cancellation and saw a failed company. That's the wrong frame. What actually happened is that a first-of-kind technology encountered the first regulatory hurdle and cost discovery, which is not a verdict on the technology, it is the expected friction of building something that has never been built at commercial scale before.
Want to understand why this narrative places such a steep gap between NuScale Power’s share price and its stated fair value. The argument leans heavily on rapid top line expansion, a future profit margin profile that looks more like a mature utility than an early-stage reactor developer, and a valuation multiple usually reserved for fast growing platforms. Curious which specific growth path and profitability assumptions have to hold for $100 to make sense.
Result: Fair Value of $100 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
Still, the NuScale Power narrative could be hit if cost estimates climb further, or if new projects stall because of regulatory, financing, or customer delays.
Find out about the key risks to this NuScale Power narrative.
Next Steps
Mixed signals like this can either harden an existing view or push you to recheck the numbers yourself. If you want a clearer sense of how NuScale Power’s risk concerns stack up against the potential rewards highlighted by investors, review the 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs.
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