Goldman Sachs: Middle East shipping disruptions are expected to continue until the end of 2027 and the oil price forecast for next year

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Goldman Sachs released a report stating that based on the new assumption that the Middle East shipping disruptions will continue until next year, the bank raised its oil price forecast for December 2026 and 2027 by 5 US dollars per barrel. Goldman Sachs currently expects the price of Brent crude oil to be 85 US dollars per barrel and the price of US crude oil to be 80 US dollars per barrel in December 2026; the price forecasts for 2027 are 80 US dollars and 75 US dollars per barrel, respectively.

According to the report, risks are still clearly biased towards the upside, especially in the short term. The price increase is limited because the OECD commercial onshore inventory has not decreased much since the war began, reflecting a smaller than expected supply gap. Analysts expect that even if shipping continues to be blocked, the Middle East supply can be adjusted, the scale of the “undercurrent” that secretly circulates crude oil will expand, and several oil pipelines will be put into use by the end of 2027.

Iran threatened that if the US attacks its assets again, Tehran will retaliate, and said that the entire Gulf region's energy infrastructure, including US oil and gas interests in the region, is vulnerable to attack.

Since the US and Israel launched an attack on Iran on February 28, triggering war, Iran has tightened restrictions on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The strait is an important transportation channel for global oil and gas supplies.