Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX) Reports Weaker Q2 Results, Is The Valuation Gap Too Wide?
Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX) shares came into focus after the company reported Q2 2026 results, with a wider loss and a steep revenue decline tied to lower Roche collaboration contributions.
At a latest share price of $3.63, Recursion Pharmaceuticals has seen short term momentum pick up, with a 1 month share price return of 12.73% and a 90 day share price return of 9.34%. However, the 1 year total shareholder return is still down 21.26%, which points to interest returning after a tougher stretch for long term holders as investors weigh the weaker Roche collaboration revenues against the company’s cash runway into early 2028.
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Recursion Pharmaceuticals is trying to build a powerful drug discovery platform, yet the stock is still working through heavy losses and a reset in collaboration revenue. After the latest rebound, is that mix priced fairly today?
Most Popular Narrative: 84.3% Overvalued
The most followed narrative on Recursion Pharmaceuticals pegs fair value at $1.97, well below the latest $3.63 close, which creates a sharp gap between price and that storyline.
RXRX is a terrible biotech only because the INSIDERS themselves don’t believe in it! All they’re doing is milking the heck out of this doomed stock! Never seen a company where ALL they’re doing insiders are selling! Stock continues to go down every month! CEO said in 2014 that in 10 years there would be 100 new drugs! 12 years later they have ZERO 0️⃣!!! This stock went from over $40 to under $4! The hype is unbelievable! Worst biotech ever!!! Nuff said
The gap between the $1.97 fair value and the market price comes from a specific blend of projected revenue growth, margin assumptions and future valuation multiples. Curious which parts of Recursion Pharmaceuticals' financial model do the heavy lifting in this narrative and how that translates into the current overvaluation call.
Result: Fair Value of $1.97 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, Recursion Pharmaceuticals could challenge this overvaluation call if collaboration milestones reaccelerate or if clinical data on REC-4881 and REC-617 shifts sentiment.
Find out about the key risks to this Recursion Pharmaceuticals narrative.
Another View On Recursion Pharmaceuticals Valuation
The user narrative describes Recursion Pharmaceuticals as overvalued at $3.63 compared with a $1.97 fair value. Our DCF model suggests something different. It estimates future cash flow value at $9.69, which implies the current price is well below that framework. Which perspective aligns better with your risk tolerance?
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Recursion Pharmaceuticals for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 47 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.
Next Steps
With mixed sentiment around Recursion Pharmaceuticals, now is a good time to move quickly and review the latest data. You can judge the trade off between concerns and potential upside for yourself using the 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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