Cattle Markets Consolidate Thursday’s gains
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The Cattle futures markets opened higher on Friday and traded to their respective highs. The markets then fell to their lows as news/ rumors about a White Press release to address producers’ concerns. The break was quick and brutal and then reversed course with a strong rally that took price into the upper end of their ranges. Live Cattle drifted lower the rest of the session to close in the lower end of its trading range. Feeder Cattle meanwhile consolidated in the upper end of its range, settling near the high. Both markets formed inside candlesticks. The press release listed a series of executive orders to address producer concerns on the beef industry. Go to President Trump Signs Executive Orders, Cementing Status As Most Pro-Rancher Administration in History | USDA to view the press release. Cash prices strengthened at the end of the day to get cattle sold in the South at up to 222.00. We didn’t see too much enthusiasm in the futures in front of the Labor Day holiday as the uncertainty over the press release weighed on the markets. Now that the news is out, maybe we can see some favor come back to the markets as now he is trying to bolster producers instead of saying things that hurt cash prices. Maybe with this statement he stays out of the markets and let supply and demand dictate the price action. This could get bulls back into the market as one would assume he has finally seen the light and realizes his comments don’t help anyone but the packing/ retail operations. Consumers and producers always seem to lose when he tries to help, in my opinion. The border hasn’t seen a major influx of cattle as of yet but more ports will open over time. The screwworm doesn’t seem to be getting any better in Mexico and the USDA has now released over a billion sterile flies in its war against the screwworm. What can happen next? We’ll see!... October Feeder Cattle rallied to its high at 322.575, which was a breach of resistance at 321.00. The high was below Thursday’s high and price pulled back and the crashed quickly to its ow at 316.925. This was above Thursday’s low and a test of the rising 8-DMA now at 317.30. Price recovered, briefly going into positive territory and the drifted into the close to settle below the key level at 321.00 with its 320.15 settlement. A failure from settlement could see price test support at the rising 8-DMA. Support then comes in at 314.20. A rally past 321.00 could see price approach resistance at 326.875. October Cattle made its high at 215.25. It failed just below resistance at 215.60. The ensuing breakdown took price to its low at 211.40. The low was just above support at 210.975. Price worked higher and settled at 212.95. The price action stayed with Thursday’s trading range. If settlement holds price could test resistance at 214.325. Resistance then comes in at 215.60. A failure from settlement could see price test support at the Friday low and the key level at 210.975.
The Feeder Cattle Index increased and is at 328.80 as of 09/03/2026 settlement.
Boxed beef cutouts were mixed as choice cutouts decreased 0.73 to 376.17 and select surged 5.15 to 355.87. The choice/ select spread narrowed and is at 20.30 and the load count was 94.
Friday’s estimated slaughter is 97,000, which is below last week’s 103,000 and last year’s 119,302. Saturday slaughter is expected to be 17,000, which is below last week’s 24,000 and above last year’s 6,494. The estimated total for the week (so far) is 526,000, which is below last week’s 542,000 and above last year’s 493,830.
The USDA report LM_Ct131 states: So far for Friday, negotiated cash trade has been limited on light to moderate demand in Nebraska and the Western Cornbelt. The last established market in Nebraska was on Wednesday with live purchases at mostly 218.00 and dressed at 345.00. In the Western Cornbelt, there were a few live purchases from 218.00-220.00, mostly at 220.00. Not enough for an adequate market test. The last established market in the Western Cornbelt was on Wednesday with live purchases at 218.00 and dressed purchases at 345.00.
The USDA is indicating cash trades for live cattle from 215.00 – 222.00 and from 340.00 – 350.00 on a dressed basis (so far) for the week.
Trade Strategy:
February 2027 Live Cattle Options Strategy
Sell the February 2027 Live Cattle 250/230 put spread at 17 cents.
- Premium collected: $6,800, less commissions and fees
- Maximum risk: $1,200, plus commissions and fees
- Margin requirement: $1,104
- Risk management: Consider limiting risk to 200 points ($800) plus commissions and fees
- Profit objective: Work a bid to buy back the spread at 7 cents
- Potential gain: Approximately $4,000, less commissions and fees
- Premium collected: $1,250.00, less commissions and fees(250 points) per spread
- Maximum risk: $3,750, plus commissions and fees per spread
Feeder Cattle Opportunity:
Sell the January 2027 Feeder Cattle 330/320 put spread for 700 points a $3,500.00 credit. Buy
the March Feeder Cattle 340 Call for 450 points a $2,250.00 debit.
**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Livestock Analyst
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
888.391.7894
Fax: 312.256.0109
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