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    Intuitive Machines (LUNR) Is Down 9.1% After New IM 300 Spacecraft Contract Win - Has The Bull Case Changed?

    Simply Wall St·09/04/2026 09:25:37
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    • In early September 2026, Intuitive Machines, Inc. announced it had been awarded a contract to build two IM 300 series spacecraft platforms for a new, undisclosed customer, using its IM 300 line produced at its high-volume Palo Alto manufacturing facility.
    • The deal highlights how Intuitive Machines’ serial production infrastructure and qualified supplier base may help it add new market segments without disrupting existing mission schedules.
    • We’ll now examine how this new IM 300 contract, and the broader shift toward non-NASA customers, may influence Intuitive Machines’ investment narrative.

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    Intuitive Machines Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Intuitive Machines, you need to believe that its vertically integrated space infrastructure model can convert a large backlog into sustainable revenues despite ongoing losses and heavy capital needs. The new IM 300 contract supports the near term catalyst of filling satellite production capacity and broadening non NASA demand, but it does not materially change the biggest near term risk: dependence on a handful of large, timing sensitive contracts while the business remains unprofitable.

    The August authorization to proceed on a multi satellite communications infrastructure program valued at over US$600,000,000 is the clearest reference point for this IM 300 win. Both contracts lean on Intuitive Machines’ build connect operate approach, where high volume satellite production and network services are meant to compound over time. Together, they frame the key question for investors: can a growing mix of commercial work meaningfully offset the concentration and execution risks embedded in its government heavy backlog?

    Yet beneath these contract wins, investors should also be aware of how quickly persistent losses and heavy capital needs could...

    Read the full narrative on Intuitive Machines (it's free!)

    Intuitive Machines’ narrative projects $1.5 billion revenue and $62.2 million earnings by 2029.

    Uncover how Intuitive Machines' forecasts yield a $40.78 fair value, a 177% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    LUNR 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    LUNR 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Some analysts were far more cautious, assuming about US$1.2 billion in revenue and only US$102.3 million in earnings by 2029, highlighting how views on contract dependence and profitability can differ sharply from the optimism implied by the new IM 300 award.

    Explore 11 other fair value estimates on Intuitive Machines - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

    Form Your Own Verdict

    Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.